Above all for European states, I do not think Trump will attach much importance to this, he says.
This also puts countries like Germany in an acute goal conflict. One is forced to choose between upholding the international rule-based world order and supporting Israel, both of which have been cornerstones of the country's foreign policy for decades.
Will the ICC's decision have any immediate impact on the war?
It's hard to predict. Above all, it affects diplomacy. Israel will clearly react furiously, I would think they will also bring up the anti-Semitism argument.
A possible consequence of the decision is that European countries that support the court will find it more difficult to export weapons to Israel.
Must arrest
The ICC's arrest warrant also applies to Defense Minister Yoav Gallant. A similar order applies to Mohammad Dayf, leader of the terrorist-stamped Hamas armed branch. According to Israel, Dayf is dead, but it is obviously not confirmed, says Pål Wrange, professor of international law at Stockholm University.
The 124 member states of the ICC have an obligation to arrest the individuals and bring them to The Hague. This means that Netanyahu cannot travel to the 124 countries. But among others, the USA, Russia, and China are outside the court.
It is clearly a political loss for him (Netanyahu). He is a wanted war criminal, it's not good, says Wrange.
Argument against arms export
What can this mean for countries that export arms to Israel?
That they (ICC) have found probable cause that Israel is committing war crimes and crimes against humanity, it's an additional argument not to export arms. It involves a risk that the arms will be used for war crimes, says Wrange and continues:
But it also depends on what type of arms it is about. Some arms are purely defensive, for example, defending against incoming rockets.
