So far this year, over 1.6 million Afghans have left Iran and Pakistan and returned to Afghanistan. In recent weeks, the number has increased dramatically. In June, nearly half a million Afghans left Iran and on just one day, July 1, 43,000 people crossed the border.
I want to emphasize how enormous these numbers are, says Charlotte Hallqvist, spokesperson for UNHCR's Nordic office.
Both Iran and Pakistan have introduced new rules that affect Afghans who have lived in the two neighboring countries. Tehran claims that there are four million undocumented Afghans in the country and has given them until July 6 to leave Iran.
UNHCR now estimates that as many as three million Afghans in the two neighboring countries may make their way to Afghanistan this year, reports the news agency AFP.
A desperate situation
The Islam Qala refugee camp in Afghanistan, about a mile from the Iranian border, receives the majority of those who return. No one knows exactly how many refugees the camp houses. But right now, an additional 30,000 Afghans are crossing the border into their home country - every day.
The situation in the camp is difficult.
They are exhausted, tired and hungry, children and pregnant women who need a lot of support. In the refugee camp, there is no water infrastructure, no toilets or latrines. In addition, there is a heatwave in Afghanistan now. It's a desperate situation, says Charlotte Hallqvist.
Without money or contacts to continue further into the country, most people get stuck in the refugee camp. The majority lack documentation.
They have very few belongings and many have no home to go to.
Afghans have lived in Iran for decades, as undocumented migrants. Many have made a living through the informal economy, often in the construction or service sector. Many of them were also born in Iran and have never set foot in Afghanistan.
The actual number is unknown, but unlike Tehran, the UN estimates that it is around 2.6 million, according to a calculation made in 2022.
Demographic shock
The return migration means a huge burden for Afghanistan, one of the poorest countries in the world, which now risks being further destabilized.
We estimate that about 50 percent of Afghanistan's entire population is already dependent on humanitarian aid, says Charlotte Hallqvist.
So it's a demographic shock for Afghanistan to absorb this influx of people, and take care of all those who come and who neither have the capacity nor the resources to start over.
