The attack, which was directed at three Iranian nuclear facilities, does not come as a surprise, according to Anders Persson, a political scientist at Linnaeus University.
It was also expected how it happened – with B-2 bombers and with the largest and most advanced bunker-busting bombs, according to American media reports.
What was not expected, however, was that several facilities were hit, not just Fordo, says Persson.
"Existentially threatened"
So far, no documentation has been released from the attack, but Trump is already calling the attack a major success.
Which is typical of him to do. But one should be critical of sources, says Persson.
It is possible for the US and Israel to impose a diplomatic agreement on the Iranian regime through violence, Persson emphasizes.
But it is also possible that it will be the beginning of another long and drawn-out war in the Middle East.
All assessors are now waiting for a direct response from the highly pressured Iranian regime. But such a response will also be carefully considered, Persson emphasizes.
The Iranian regime is existentially threatened. The US and Israel can still play the card of threatening to kill Iran's supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.
If Iran retaliates in a way that the US thinks is too much, they can strike back much, much harder.
Attacks on American military bases have been identified as possible targets for Iran and its proxies in the region, as well as blockades that can stop important shipping lanes for oil.
Iran's best strategy is probably to make this a prolonged conflict. The longer this goes on, the greater the chance Iran probably has of getting a better deal from their point of view.
Russia can be the winner
Iran risks simultaneously drawing a world of enemies, which is rarely a winning strategy.
Iran also has few allies who are willing to send concrete help, which has particularly been shown during the week with clashes with Israel.
But in the long run, it may be that Russia and China benefit from a prolonged conflict between the US and Iran, Persson emphasizes.
Russia can benefit directly from higher oil prices to gain various types of advantages in Ukraine.
China says it does not want disorder in the world, but it may want an American refocus on the Middle East instead of Asia when it comes to military resources and so on.
