After last night's American attack on three Iranian nuclear facilities, the question is how Iran chooses to act.
It's an incredibly sensitive situation, a very critical moment for the region. Iran is balancing on a knife's edge, says Erika Holmquist at the Total Defence Research Institute.
But she believes that Iran must act in some way, that doing nothing could be interpreted as weakness.
From Iran's point of view, there are no good alternatives, she says.
One alternative is to strike against American bases and embassies in the region. The USA has a number of important bases there, for example in Kuwait, Qatar, Bahrain, and the United Arab Emirates. Around 40,000 American soldiers and civilian employees are stationed in the region, but many have already been evacuated.
”Cannot win”
It's difficult to predict the consequences of an attack on American targets. One possibility is to "not make it particularly successful", according to Erika Holmquist, just to avoid a broader American counterattack.
In the end, Iran cannot win a conflict against the USA, and they know that, she says.
Iran has also threatened to close the Strait of Hormuz, which would affect shipping in the heavily trafficked strait.
This could create disruptions in oil production and trade, says Holmquist.
Anders Persson, a political scientist at Linnaeus University, sees a risk that the Middle East will be plunged into a long and drawn-out war, even if President Donald Trump wants a quick conclusion.
Iran's best strategy is probably to make this into a prolonged conflict. The longer this goes on, the greater the chance Iran probably has of getting a better deal from their point of view, says Anders Persson.
”Existentially threatened”
All observers are now expecting a direct response from the highly pressured Iranian regime. But the response will likely be carefully weighed, emphasizes Persson.
The Iranian regime is existentially threatened. The USA and Israel can still play the card of threatening to kill Iran's highest leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.
If Iran retaliates in a way that the USA thinks is too much, they can strike much, much harder.
