He is probably dissatisfied with the fact that it is going so slowly, he says.
That the initiative comes now is not surprising, Trump has flagged that a message will come in the coming days, says Robert Bergqvist.
He believes that the initiative is part of Trump's usual negotiation tactic – to create uncertainty for the counterpart. By threatening with import duties of 30 percent, Trump hopes to speed up an agreement with the EU.
I understand it, to some extent. The EU is not built to move quickly. The EU Commission is holding together the negotiations and it must be reconciled with all 27 EU countries.
"Devastating"
Duties of 30 percent would be devastating for Swedish export industry, Bergqvist believes.
I am very concerned about the way this trade war is developing, he says.
Per Altenberg, chief economist at the National Board of Trade, thinks that it is difficult to know how the EU will respond. It is likely, he believes, that they will stick to their current line.
So far, the EU's strategy has been to negotiate, and those negotiations are still ongoing as far as I understand. But at the same time threatening with countermeasures if those negotiations fail.
Robert Bergqvist is on the same line.
The countries that have tried to go against this and raise their duties have not got any constructive result. Above all China, but also Canada, it has been devastating, he says and continues:
I think that in this situation Brussels will keep a cool head for a few more weeks and simply hope that they will reach the goal by August 1.
Trump can back down
That the duties will end up at around ten percent – possibly with the exception of individual goods – is a likely scenario, says Bergqvist. He points out that Trump has previously had a tendency to back down from his initiatives when he has met with negative reactions from the market.
Moreover, American companies and households risk having to pay a high price.
All analyzes that have been made by us and other international organizations agree that the trade war is something that worsens the prospects for the US economy and the world economy, he says.
Per Altenberg emphasizes that 30 percent duties would violate the US's commitment to the World Trade Organization, WTO. Whether Trump makes good on the duty threat or not is difficult to predict, he thinks.
The only consistent thing from the US right now is the unpredictability.
