Trump's statement about Egypt and Jordan taking in Palestinians, and the US taking over Gaza, came as a surprise to the outside world.
Egypt has announced a "detailed plan" for Gaza's reconstruction, which is intended to ensure that no Palestinians are forced to leave Gaza. But Trump stood firm on Tuesday and has as leverage for his plan the extensive military and economic support of the US to both countries.
However, if the US were to withdraw its aid, it could lead to instability, says Anders Persson, a political scientist at Linnaeus University with a focus on the conflict between Israelis and Palestinians.
Say you remove all the aid. Then these regimes would weaken. It could lead to Islamists or Iran advancing their positions and a range of negative side effects. It's possible that Trump doesn't care or isn't aware of what could happen, but it could create very large waves of instability, he says.
Debated Support
The economic support to the countries has been the subject of debate for decades. According to critics, the aid leads to authoritarian regimes being strengthened and human rights being violated even more. Others believe that stability in itself is important, and that the authoritarian regimes – even if they are not perfect – are still better than the alternatives.
Israel also wants these countries to be stable and wants to maintain the regimes there. So it's not an easy thing to use as leverage, says Anders Persson.
No Common Line
Trump's plan, where he wants to create a kind of "USA-riviera" in the Gaza Strip, is not seen as realistic. Rather, it is seen by observers as a negotiating tactic.
It's probably what we're seeing right now. It could lead to everything from Israeli extremists getting wind in their sails and trying to drive out Gaza's population, or what they call voluntarily encouraging them to leave. Plus, it could shake up all sorts of other actors in the region.
Trump's statement may be a sign of frustration over the difficulties in reaching a common line with Israel for an agreement on phase two of the ceasefire in Gaza, says Persson.
When they met last week, all observers were waiting for them to come up with a common line for phase two. But instead, Trump made his statement about Gaza, and it hid the fact that there apparently is no American-Israeli strategy.
