A large part of Russia's military is currently tied up in Ukraine. But a significant amount is also left in the Baltic Sea region. This includes Russian warships and fighter jets, nuclear weapons, and cyber capabilities.
A larger-scale landing or airborne operation by Russian forces in the Baltic Sea region is not considered likely, according to the military intelligence and security service (Must).
Russia does not have the prerequisites to carry out a larger conventional armed attack, says Thomas Nilsson, head of Must.
Causing trouble
On the other hand, it is possible that the Russian leadership could choose to act even more aggressively towards one of the countries around the Baltic Sea.
They have resources available today that could cause significant trouble, says Nilsson.
This could, for example, involve sophisticated cyberattacks with significant impact on society. But also nuclear threats. In the Russian exclave of Kaliningrad on the other side of the Baltic Sea, there is the Iskander missile system, often associated with tactical nuclear weapons.
I'm not saying that the risk of a nuclear attack has increased. But these are resources that are available and we hear how Russia is talking, we note that they are making changes to their nuclear doctrine, says Nilsson.
Will and purpose
He emphasizes that there must also be a will from Russia and a purpose behind what they would achieve through such operations.
We haven't seen that yet, and it also goes back to when we joined NATO, he says.
It is clear, however, that the threat to Sweden and countries in the surrounding area can increase when the war in Ukraine ends, according to Must. And then it can happen quickly. Within just a few years, Russia can significantly increase its military capabilities in the surrounding area.
Ready for war
The Danish intelligence service makes the analysis that Russia can be ready for a regional war within two years, and a large-scale war within five years. Must makes similar assessments.
In the short term, you can redeploy resources that are currently tied up in Ukraine. These are units, soldiers, and equipment that have some combat experience, they have learned a lot from the battlefield.
If Russia is to regain the resources it had before its attack on Ukraine in 2022, we believe it will take five years.
Russia has lost a lot of weapons, soldiers, and equipment, how can they recover so quickly?
They have enormous losses, but they have so far managed to replenish them. They do this thanks to contract soldiers who are paid handsomely. When it comes to equipment, the industry is running at high speed and unfortunately, they receive support from China and some other countries.
The military intelligence service in Denmark (FE) has outlined various scenarios after the war in Ukraine is over.
After six months, Russia could carry out a smaller conflict in a neighboring country.
After around two years, Russia would pose a credible threat to one or more NATO countries, or be able to handle a regional conflict in the Baltic Sea region.
After five years, Russia would be ready for a large-scale war in Europe.
This assumes that the USA is not willing to get involved and NATO countries do not rearm at the same pace.
