The USA's future president Donald Trump promises, in capital letters, that the USA will keep its distance from Syria. Current president Joe Biden congratulates the Syrian people on a "historic victory" over the Bashar al-Assad regime.
But the USA has lost its former dominance in the region. Analysts believe that Biden's former boss, Barack Obama, bears indirect responsibility for Russia's influence over the dictator in Damascus.
We are in this situation as a consequence of the USA's failure in the Middle East during President Barack Obama's time, says independent Middle East expert Alexander Atarodi.
Red Line
The USA has deliberately reduced its influence in the Middle East over the past decade, where it was previously the most powerful global actor.
But according to Alexander Atarodi, there is a direct historical event that enabled Russia to suddenly become one of Damascus' closest allies – which in turn is a direct cause of the chaos that prevails.
During the civil war in Syria, Obama established a so-called red line, which would trigger American actions against the Assad regime: if chemical weapons were used in warfare, the USA would act.
In August 2013, a suburb of Damascus, held by rebels, was attacked with the nerve gas sarin, which paralyzes breathing and leads to death by asphyxiation. 1,400 people were killed.
But Obama hesitated, and ultimately chose not to act.
When the USA did not respect the line, Russia entered Syria. For Russia, it became clear that the USA did not mean business with its threats, says Alexander Atarodi.
President Obama did many other good things, but here he failed to establish a deterrent capability worthy of a superpower.
Bashar al-Assad clung to power for a long time with Russian military aid during the civil war, largely thanks to massive airstrikes.
Failed Wars
Now the Assad regime is gone, the rebels have power, and Russia is temporarily out of the game.
The USA has fought two failed wars, in Iraq and in Afghanistan. Its influence in the Middle East and over Israel has decreased. What will the superpower's next move be?
Trump number two will likely accelerate a withdrawal. It naturally has a significant impact on other actors who feel strong. The playing field becomes free, says Atarodi.
