The risk of a scenario with recession in the American economy is becoming increasingly smaller, at least according to the major bank Goldman Sachs. In a market update to its customers, Goldman Sachs now estimates the risk of recession next year to 20 percent compared to the previous 25 percent.
The reasons for the new optimism, according to the bank, are the market data presented in recent weeks, including retail sales in July, which noted the largest increase since the beginning of 2023.
Goldman Sachs now writes that it is "increasingly confident" that the central bank Federal Reserve will lower the interest rate by 0.25 percentage points at the September meeting. However, if the labor market statistics reported on September 6 show further weakening, it is possible that there may be a so-called double cut, i.e. by 0.50 percentage points, estimates Goldman Sachs.
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