Expert on Rocket Attack: A Nightmare Scenario

The rocket attack on a football pitch in the Golan Heights, annexed by Israel, can in the worst case lead to the conflict between Israel and Hezbollah deteriorating and escalating, according to Middle East expert Anders Persson. Everything depends on how Israel chooses to respond to the attack, he says.

» Published: July 27 2024

Expert on Rocket Attack: A Nightmare Scenario
Photo: Gil Eliyahu/AP/TT

Share this article

The rocket attack on a football field in the Golan Heights, annexed by Israel, can in the worst-case scenario lead to the conflict between Israel and Hezbollah escalating and getting out of control, according to Middle East expert Anders Persson.

Everything depends on how Israel chooses to respond to the attack, he says.

The rocket attack on the Golan Heights, which according to Israel claimed the lives of at least eleven children and young people, is described as the deadliest attack on Israeli targets since the current fighting with Hezbollah broke out along the country's northern border in October.

Many analysts have warned of a similar scenario, where children are affected.

It's an incredibly unstable situation, and it's exactly this type of event that can make the situation get out of control, even though neither side really wants it, says Anders Persson, associate professor of political science at Linnaeus University, to TT.

Hezbollah denies

Israel claims that the rockets were fired from Lebanon, and the Israeli military points to Hezbollah as responsible. However, Hezbollah denies being behind the attack.

The most likely scenario is that Hezbollah was behind the attack, but the rockets didn't have to be precision-guided. They could have been intended for another target, says Anders Persson.

He believes that Israel will respond in some way, unclear how. Israel's Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is currently in the US but has interrupted his visit to return home.

I think there will be some kind of response within 24 to 48 hours. But I'm not sure it will be an escalating response. There are certain circumstances that can be seen as mitigating for Israel.

Belonged to minority

One such mitigating circumstance can, in Israel's eyes, be that the attack took place in a peripheral area and not in a major city like Tel Aviv.

Those who were killed belonged to a minority, most of them were Druze children. If the dead had been Israeli Jews in a major city, the response would have been harsher, says Anders Persson.

If Israel concludes that the rocket attack was an unfortunate misfire, the response may be to shell military targets near the Israeli border.

If Israel wants to escalate the conflict, they can respond by bombing deeper into Lebanon and targeting high-ranking leaders of Hezbollah or infrastructure.

Tags

Author

TTT
By TTEnglish edition by Sweden Herald, adapted for local and international readers

More news

French Government Faces Collapse Amid Political Turmoil
4 MIN READ

French Government Faces Collapse Amid Political Turmoil

Two Boys Fatally Stabbed in Melbourne Suburbs
1 MIN READ

Two Boys Fatally Stabbed in Melbourne Suburbs

Deadly Russian Attack Hits Kyiv Government Building
2 MIN READ

Deadly Russian Attack Hits Kyiv Government Building

Chicago Leaders Condemn Trump's Threats as "Repulsive"
2 MIN READ

Chicago Leaders Condemn Trump's Threats as "Repulsive"

Loose Cable Caused Fatal Lisbon Funicular Crash, Investigators Say
1 MIN READ

Loose Cable Caused Fatal Lisbon Funicular Crash, Investigators Say

Family Calls for Health Minister Kennedy's Resignation Over Vaccine Stance
2 MIN READ

Family Calls for Health Minister Kennedy's Resignation Over Vaccine Stance

Car Crashes into French Pizzeria Patio Leaving One Dead
1 MIN READ

Car Crashes into French Pizzeria Patio Leaving One Dead

Over 425 Arrested at Pro-Palestinian Protest in London
1 MIN READ

Over 425 Arrested at Pro-Palestinian Protest in London

Over 50 Killed in Boko Haram Attack in Northeastern Nigeria
2 MIN READ

Over 50 Killed in Boko Haram Attack in Northeastern Nigeria

Hippopotamus Capsizes Boat in Ivory Coast: Eleven Missing
1 MIN READ

Hippopotamus Capsizes Boat in Ivory Coast: Eleven Missing

$1 Million Reward Offered for Capture of Armed Police Killer in Australia
1 MIN READ

$1 Million Reward Offered for Capture of Armed Police Killer in Australia

Gaza Toddler Shamm Finds New Hope with Treatment in Italy
2 MIN READ

Gaza Toddler Shamm Finds New Hope with Treatment in Italy

Russia Boosts Drone Production to 2,700 Monthly
1 MIN READ

Russia Boosts Drone Production to 2,700 Monthly

Hamas Threat to Israel: Analysts Say Eradication Unlikely
7 MIN READ

Hamas Threat to Israel: Analysts Say Eradication Unlikely

Thousands Gather in Milan to Honor Fashion Icon Giorgio Armani
1 MIN READ

Thousands Gather in Milan to Honor Fashion Icon Giorgio Armani

Zelensky Rejects Putin's Moscow Meeting Invitation
1 MIN READ

Zelensky Rejects Putin's Moscow Meeting Invitation

Israel Calls for Evacuation to Contested Humanitarian Zone in Gaza
2 MIN READ

Israel Calls for Evacuation to Contested Humanitarian Zone in Gaza

Norway Election Poll: Red-Greens Lead as Høyre Faces Historic Low
2 MIN READ

Norway Election Poll: Red-Greens Lead as Høyre Faces Historic Low

Large Shark Attack in Sydney Leaves Surfer Dead
1 MIN READ

Large Shark Attack in Sydney Leaves Surfer Dead

Europe Faces Autumn Crisis Amid Trump Tensions
3 MIN READ

Europe Faces Autumn Crisis Amid Trump Tensions