It is unlikely that Russia would be able to handle a conflict with one or more NATO countries as long as the Russian military still has a large commitment in the Ukraine war, according to a new assessment from the intelligence service FE (Defence Intelligence Service). It is also not considered that there is a concrete threat to Denmark at present.
But if and when the war reaches a frozen state, it is estimated that the Russian military will be able to gather enough strength for a smaller conflict with another neighboring country in about six months.
It would take about two years for it to be able to pose a "credible threat" to one or more NATO countries, or to be able to handle a hypothetical war regionally around the Baltic Sea, according to FE's analysis.
After five years, Russia would be ready for a large-scale war on the European continent – if the development looks like the US is not willing to get involved and the NATO countries have not armed much more, according to the Danish analysts.
Russia's government presents it as if the country is at war with a united Western world or NATO in Ukraine. And if Russia wants to attack a NATO country, that will only grow if the military alliance is perceived as weakened, it says in the Danish report:
"This applies especially if Russia assesses that the US cannot or will not support the European NATO countries in a war with Russia."
