At 12 o'clock, the 720 members in Strasbourg will have their say on the lineup with 26 commissioners presented by President von der Leyen.
Anything other than a yes would be a major surprise. The Parliament's three middle groups – the conservative EPP, the social democratic S&D, and the liberal RE – have formed a loose coalition to support the Commission and are expected to largely vote yes.
A simple majority – more yes than no – is all that is required.
In a speech before the vote, Commission President von der Leyen warns of a difficult political situation, not least around Russia's war in Ukraine.
Europeans must once again fight for freedom and independence. It may look different than for previous generations, but the same thing is at stake, says von der Leyen in Strasbourg.
No from V and SD
The outcome is not entirely certain, however. All the major party groups have "rebels" who do not follow the party line – for example, the Spanish right-wing party PP and the French social democrats PS.
Among the Swedes, only V and SD are expected to vote no, for entirely different reasons.
We will get a Commission that is the most right-wing extreme we have ever had, believes Hanna Gedin (V).
The political direction is firmly anchored in a center-left perspective. Based on this, we see that we have no other choice but to vote no, says Charlie Weimers (SD).
The Green Party will, in turn, abstain.
"We are laying down our votes in protest against the murky process and against the right-wing extremists who are now being given influence over the EU's future", says Alice Bah Kuhnke (MP) via SMS.
Uncharted Territory
If it becomes a no, the EU will enter uncharted territory. In that case, von der Leyen would have to redistribute her posts and the EU Parliament would have to conduct new hearings, which would likely delay the takeover significantly.
A yes, on the other hand, would mean that the new Commission can start working immediately, starting from Sunday, December 1.
The Swedish representative in the proposed Commission is former EU Minister Jessika Roswall (M), who is proposed to be responsible for the environment and water resilience.
This is how the previous votes on the EU's incoming Commission have gone:
2019 with President Ursula von der Leyen: 461 yes against 157 no (89 abstained out of a total of 751 members)
2014 with Jean-Claude Juncker: 423–209 (67, 751)
2010 with José Manuel Barroso: 488–137 (72, 736)
2004 with Barroso: 478–84 (98, 732)
1999 with Romano Prodi: 510–51 (28, 626)
1995 with Jacques Santer: 417–104 (59, 626)
Source: EU Parliament
