A new draft agreement is the major topic of discussion at COP29, which is intended to be finalized on Friday after two weeks of marathon negotiations. But Mathias Fridahl, lecturer at Linköping University, who is serving as an observer for COP29, says that with "99.9 percent probability" it will drag on.
At the earliest, I would say Saturday afternoon, but it's likely to drag on until Sunday.
"Unusually tough"
The crucial conflict concerns the financing of climate measures for poor countries.
The new draft presented on Friday contains, for the first time, a concrete sum – $250 billion annually from rich countries until 2035. This can be compared to the current goal of $100 billion annually.
Additionally, a concrete goal of a total sum of $1,300 billion is mentioned, where the $250 billion is the base and the rest includes, among other things, private investments.
I don't think this is the final text. But it's clearly an attempt to bridge the gap between the parties we've seen in previous drafts. I think it has the foundation for an agreement this week, says Melanie Robertson, climate and finance chief at the research organization World Resources Institute, who believes that $250 billion could become $300 before everything is finalized.
Sweden's Climate Minister Romina Pourmokhtari (L) is cautiously optimistic:
"This could be a step in the right direction," she says in a written comment.
$1,300 billion is the amount that poor countries have demanded, mainly in the form of donations from rich countries. The EU and Japan, on the other hand, have not even wanted to discuss a figure, until richer developing countries like China and India agree to contribute.
The feeling is that it's unusually tough, says Fridahl.
Fridahl notes that neither side is unreasonable in their demands, but that everyone knows a compromise must be reached.
No one will be satisfied with it, everyone will be dissatisfied when they go home.
Several brakes
The host country Azerbaijan has also received criticism for not driving the issue of fossil-free energy hard enough. Both the EU and the US have criticized the proposals on the table for not being sharp enough. Saudi Arabia, India, and China are pointed out as brakes.
Norman Martín Casas at the aid organization Oxfam is worried about the lack of progress, but says he is optimistic and sees that some parties have taken a more flexible stance.
We must keep in mind that when people are pressed, tired, and emotional, things can happen. We must hope that they act in a constructive spirit and don't do anything rash.
