This could be a cautious start to the long-awaited recovery in the Swedish economy, says Torbjörn Isaksson.
Growth compared to the previous month rose to 1.4 percent, according to a quick indicator from Statistics Sweden (SCB). This can be compared to an average forecast of 0.4 percent among analysts, according to a compilation of forecasts made by Bloomberg.
"Bumpy ride"
In October, Swedish GDP shrank by 0.4 percent.
According to Isaksson, the sharp upturn in November is the result of October's figure being "oddly weak".
This only means that GDP is back on the forecasts that we and the Swedish Central Bank have for the Swedish economy, he says.
Compared to November 2023, the growth rate was 2.1 percent.
Isaksson does not expect to have to adjust any forecasts as a result of the unexpectedly strong GDP figure. And he warns that it will probably be a "bumpy ride" when it comes to the recovery in the Swedish economy going forward.
Household consumption increased by 1.1 percent in November compared to the previous month. This can be compared to the decrease of 0.3 percent the previous month. In annual terms, the increase in consumption in November was 1.6 percent.
The highest consumption level in several years, notes Isaksson.
Highest consumption since June 2022
To find a higher Swedish consumption figure – if you measure the volume in fixed prices – you have to go back to June 2022.
According to Isaksson, the boost to Swedish consumption in November may be related to so-called Black Friday shopping, whose impact on Swedish consumers' behavior appears to be increasing from year to year.
So I wouldn't be surprised if consumption fell back in December again, he says.
Production in the business sector also rose unexpectedly much in November.
There has been a broad upturn in recent months.
But even there, there may be a small setback again in December, Isaksson fears.
