Tariffs Contribute to Rising US Inflation, Expert Says

There was a certain relief on the market after the inflation announcement in the USA. But at the same time, the underlying inflation is rising. - You can see that goods inflation is increasing a bit faster, it is likely that it is explained by the tariffs, says SEB's chief strategist Olle Holmgren.

» Published: August 12 2025

Tariffs Contribute to Rising US Inflation, Expert Says
Photo: Nam Y. Huh/AP/TT

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The new American inflation statistics are a bit scattered. The price increase rate on an annual basis landed in July at 2.7 percent, unchanged compared to June. But the so-called core inflation, cleaned for food and energy, rose from 2.9 percent in June to 3.1 percent in July, which was higher than expected.

It looks like inflation is on its way to being pulled upwards, says Olle Holmgren.

And that it is the American import duties that are behind it, according to him.

But there is no drama.

It comes basically in line with expectations, which explains a little sense of relief on the stock market, at least temporarily, says Jon Arnell, investment manager at von Euler & Partners.

Directly after the announcement, the dollar weakened slightly against the krona.

Interest rate traders lean after the announcement to a greater extent towards an interest rate cut in September than before, according to Bloomberg. Directly after the inflation figures were released, there are only small market movements.

It's nothing that changes the already existing picture, that is, the expectation of a September cut remains firm simply, says Jon Arnell.

Olle Holmgren agrees. He also believes in an interest rate cut in September.

It was a bit of a sigh of relief, there was a fear of a higher figure.

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By TTEnglish edition by Sweden Herald, adapted for local and international readers

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