The conflict's development depends to a large extent on Iran and the US's actions, says Schierenbeck, professor of political science at the University of Gothenburg. If Iran chooses to attack American bases in the Middle East – for example in Iraq, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates – other states may be drawn in against their will.
Donald Trump has himself said this with great clarity, that the Americans will strike back and then there is a greater risk of spread, says Schierenbeck.
Israel will probably stick to bombing targets in Iran – until they think they have fulfilled their goal. What it's about, we don't know exactly, since they are military targets that are set. But Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu believes that the action is for the country's survival and that they are deeply concerned about Iran's nuclear technology program.
"Limited time"
Before Friday's Israeli attack on Iran, new nuclear energy talks between the US and Iran were planned for Sunday. On Saturday, a spokesperson from Iran said that continued nuclear energy talks are meaningless after the attack. Netanyahu and the Israeli government, on the other hand, think that the agreements do not go far enough.
Agreeing with the US could be an opportunity for Iran to withdraw from the conflict, Schierenbeck believes.
I think it's quite likely anyway that it may not blow over in a day, but that it will be a limited time that this lasts, she says and continues:
Iran has little to gain from continuing, and the other states in the region absolutely want to avoid a regional war. But it's also about when Israel thinks it has achieved its goals. It's harder to determine at the moment.
Greater popular support
For both Iran and Israel, it's about being able to end the conflict in a way where they simultaneously maintain some legitimacy.
It's important to be able to present this to one's own population as a wise decision, a well-considered decision, regardless.
Among Israelis, there is great concern when it comes to Iran – and support for the attacks.
Here there is great concern and greater support than the great division we see among Israelis when it comes to the war in Gaza, where about 70 percent want to end the war to get the hostages released. It is directly aimed at the sitting government's policy, says Schierenbeck.
