The speed of sea-level rise has doubled in the last 30 years as a result of the melting of ice at Greenland and Antarctica. Around the year 2100, it will be at a rate of one centimeter per year, according to a new study based on historical data and various simulation models.
According to the researchers' findings, published in Nature Communications Earth and Environment, even a warming of 1.2 degrees compared to pre-industrial times will lead to several meters of sea-level rise in the coming centuries.
The researchers' models indicate that it may take thousands of years for polar glaciers to recover if the average temperature rises by 3 degrees. For smaller glaciers in, for example, the Alps and the Himalayas, it may take centuries.
Limiting warming to 1.5 degrees would be a great achievement and would mean that we avoid many tough consequences of climate change. But even if that goal is achieved, it is likely that sea levels will rise to levels that will be difficult for us to adapt to," says the study's lead author, Professor Chris Stokes.
Around 230 million people live today within one meter from sea level. According to the study, a sea-level rise of 20 centimeters by 2050 could result in costs of over 1,000 billion dollars per year due to flooding of large coastal cities.
