Europe's Security Plans for Ukraine Hinge on US Support

France and the United Kingdom are fighting for "security guarantees" to Ukraine ahead of a potential settlement with Russia. But how it will go is still highly unclear. And everything depends on a green light from the USA.

» Published: March 27 2025

Europe's Security Plans for Ukraine Hinge on US Support
Photo: Evgeniy Maloletka/AP/TT

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Not much has been made public about the discussions that have been going on for about a month regarding how to guarantee security for Ukraine.

British and French officials have, however, anonymously described plans for a land force of between 10,000 and 30,000 personnel, placed a good distance behind the front line, in combination with naval and air forces.

Aside from the initiators France and the UK, countries such as the Czech Republic and Slovenia have openly spoken about participating. Sweden has also, through Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson (M), shown interest in participating, provided "the conditions are right".

What does the USA say?

However, the obstacles are still many.

Large countries such as Italy and Poland have already announced that they do not want or cannot participate with forces on the ground.

The USA has, in turn, stated that European soldiers in Ukraine cannot count on American protection – something that many in Europe see as an absolute prerequisite for moving forward.

Intensive efforts are being made to persuade. French President Emmanuel Macron has announced new phone calls to his US counterpart Donald Trump. And the three Baltic foreign ministers were jointly in the USA at the beginning of the week to pressure their colleague Marco Rubio and other top politicians.

"Everything with the shared goal of making both the USA and Europe safer and more prosperous", writes Estonia's Margus Tsahkna on X.

No from Russia

Russia has simultaneously declared that it cannot imagine forces from NATO countries on the ground in Ukraine.

In normal cases, this would be seen as a negotiating bid that no one else would even consider accepting.

Now, however, there is concern that the USA appears too willing to meet Russia halfway.

The USA's stance is about reaching a quick deal, probably a dirty deal and likely nothing that is beneficial to Ukraine, fears Sabine Fischer from the German think tank SWP at an event hosted by the think tank EPC in Brussels.

"No good situation"

Both Ukraine and its European allies have difficult choices to make.

Should one accept bad terms in order to still maintain support from the USA?

Or can one instead quickly build up one's own military strength?

We are very far behind and not in a good situation. We must act now to save the situation, says Sabine Fischer.

A long series of meetings has been held by leaders within the "coalition of the willing" that gathers a still unclear number of countries on the initiative of primarily France and the UK.

17 February: President Emmanuel Macron holds a first top meeting in Paris with leaders from seven countries, as well as the EU and NATO. Denmark's Mette Frederiksen represents the Nordic countries.

19 February: A follow-up meeting is held digitally, where Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson is also participating.

2 March: Prime Minister Keir Starmer welcomes leaders from 16 countries, including Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelensky and Kristersson, to London.

11 March: Supreme commanders from about 30 countries gather in Paris, including Sweden's Michael Claesson.

20 March: New military top meeting, now in British Northwood, with the head of the Defense Forces' operational leadership, Ewa Skoog Haslum, as the Swedish representative.

27 March: Top meeting in Paris again, with, among others, Zelensky and Kristersson in attendance.

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By TTEnglish edition by Sweden Herald, adapted for local and international readers

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