Germany is the second largest arms supplier to Israel, after the USA, and has accounted for approximately one third of Israel's arms imports during the period 2020-2024, according to data from the peace research institute Sipri.
According to Max Mutschler, senior researcher at the Bonn International Centre for Conflict Studies (BICC), the export consists to a large extent of components and parts for weapons systems, and the question is whether these are included in the decision.
Unclear consequences
If the German decision only applies to complete weapons systems, Mutschler believes it will have limited effect. If, on the other hand, all arms exports are stopped, he believes the consequences for Israel can be extensive.
If it includes components, I think it will have a significant impact on the war in Gaza, not immediately, but after a while, and I think it will also affect Israeli decision-making.
According to Mutschler, it is too early to say exactly what the German decision will mean.
I am skeptical about whether this means all arms trade in materials used in Gaza, he says.
Criteria for arms exports
Given the situation in Gaza and Israel's heavily criticized warfare, he thinks the government in Berlin should have reacted earlier.
Germany, like the EU, has criteria for arms exports that in principle mean that if arms can be used with a significant risk of violating international humanitarian law, they may not be granted, says Mutschler.
We have had enough news in the past year about violations of international humanitarian law by Israeli forces in Gaza. This step should have been taken much earlier, he says.
