EU Faces Limited Options as Tensions Rise in Turkey

The stakes are high, but the roles are locked. The tensions in Turkey have become a power struggle where no one can afford to back down, fears the political scientist Paul Levin. The problems in the USA-Europe relationship contribute to Sweden and the EU not being able to do much. To also alienate Nato's second-largest military power, it becomes difficult for the EU.

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EU Faces Limited Options as Tensions Rise in Turkey
Photo: Ebrahim Noroozi/AP/TT

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Despite the ban on demonstrations introduced last week, the arrest of Istanbul's mayor Ekrem Imamoglu has brought hundreds of thousands, or perhaps even millions, of Turks out onto the streets in protest.

Many see it as Recep Tayyip Erdogan blocking the way to normal power shifts.

The opposition cannot give in, because with this move he has made it impossible for them to win by participating in elections, says Paul Levin, who is the head of the Institute for Turkey Studies at Stockholm University.

This is a turning point in Turkey, where the country's oldest party CHP has long been a state-bearing force that stood for law and order.

Since the nationwide Gezi demonstrations in 2013, which were brutally suppressed by the police, CHP has not called on people to take to the streets in protest.

Now they have taken this step because they have no other way. Erdogan has cornered them.

At the same time, the die is cast for the president, who is fully aware of how Imamoglu is popular with the people.

And now he has made him even more popular. If you were to release Imamoglu and let him run, the risk is overwhelmingly high that Erdogan would lose.

As for the outside world, Erdogan is likely counting on Turkey's strategic location and large arsenal, number two in the entire NATO defense alliance, giving him an ace up his sleeve. The EU is fully occupied with handling the new US administration, and President Donald Trump's signals of dwindling support for Europe.

To also alienate NATO's second-largest military power – that would be difficult for the EU, says Levin.

The relationships and playing field are entirely different now than when Turkey was accepted as a candidate for EU membership in 1999.

There is a high probability that we have somewhat left the international order established in the 90s, Levin believes.

Back then, the EU set fairly tough conditions for applicant countries, and also supported democracy around the world with other conditions.

Today, it's very much about democracy being threatened even in the Western world.

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By TTEnglish edition by Sweden Herald, adapted for local and international readers

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