The current situation does not indicate that there will be any further interest rate cuts from the Swedish Central Bank, at least not in the near future. The Governor of the Swedish Central Bank, Erik Thedéen, believes that the interest rate has been lowered sufficiently with last week's decision.
In addition, preliminary figures from Statistics Sweden (SCB) show an unexpectedly high inflation rate in January. However, this figure should not be over-interpreted, according to Robert Boije at SBAB, despite an increased inflation concern both in Sweden and elsewhere in the world.
Furthermore, there is great uncertainty in the world at large, not least with the new administration in the USA and threats of tariffs.
What is happening in the world has caused long-term interest rates to jump up a bit.
Does not see falling interest rates
What does all this mean for everyone with a mortgage? As a mortgage holder, one should not count on the variable mortgage interest rate falling much further than it has so far, according to Boije.
We still believe there is a chance, but one should not count on it or take it for granted. Many have probably thought it would go down a bit more.
Statistics from SCB show that variable mortgages have on average fallen by 1.4 percentage points over the past year. Even fixed interest rates have decreased, from 4.19 percent in December 2023 to 2.85 percent in December 2024.
Variable or fixed?
Boije sees mortgage interest rates remaining at current levels. Should one then opt for fixing one's mortgage? Or go for a variable interest rate?
It all depends on one's own situation, according to Boije. High loans and poor sleep can be reasons to consider the first option.
I usually don't recommend it to most people, but if you're uncertain and have small margins in your economy, you might want to fix the loan.
If the margins are instead good and you see that you can handle rising interest rates, the advice is the opposite:
Then I don't think you should fix the interest rate, says Robert Boije.
