The hours before the interest rate decision, new purchasing managers' indexes from the euro zone's largest economies - France and Germany - are expected, but also for the entire euro zone. However, analysts do not think that either the purchasing managers' indexes or the ECB's lending statistics earlier in the week will affect what is expected to be a decision to take a break after the ECB's cut of 0.25 percentage points to 2.00 percent in June.
Near the end
It is unlikely that this week's data will lead to a last-minute cut, writes Jari Stehn, European chief economist at the American investment bank Goldman Sachs, in a comment before the decision. But signs of weakness can strengthen the arguments for the ECB to ease monetary policy later this year, he adds.
ECB President Christine Lagarde said in connection with the June cut - which was the ECB's eighth interest rate cut in a year - that the ECB is now near the end of the interest rate cut cycle.
Some analysts, such as the wealth manager Pimco's portfolio manager Konstantin Veit, believe that the ECB may make another cut, perhaps in September, when the bank's economists have produced new forecasts that are feared to show that inflation is on its way to falling below the target level of 2 percent.
"But we see a possibility that the cut cycle is already completed at the current interest rate level of 2 percent," writes Veit.
Halved key interest rate
The ECB's interest rate decision is an important parameter for the Swedish Central Bank's monetary policy space and the opportunity for Erik Thedéen and his board to adjust the Swedish key interest rate.
Just like the Swedish Central Bank, the ECB has, with all interest rate cuts since 2024 - when the inflation shock began to subside - halved the key interest rate. The lower key interest rates have pushed down the interest rate level significantly, not least for Swedish mortgage borrowers with variable interest rates.
