The market expects the Swedish Central Bank to raise the key interest rate at least four times - perhaps five - over the next year. That is more increases than expected in any other major Western economy.
BusinessProducer price increases are now at their highest since the inflation shock of 2022–2023, according to recent figures from Statistics Sweden (SCB). Energy prices are pushing prices higher, says Amanda Sundström, an interest rate strategist at SEB. Like many analysts, she expects a series of interest rate hikes from the Swedish Central Bank.
BusinessHigher energy prices and a weaker krona contributed to more than a doubling of CPIF inflation in September, preliminary figures from Statistics Sweden (Sweden’s national statistics agency) show. The figures confirm that the Swedish Central Bank (Sweden’s central bank) will have to raise the policy rate in November, according to Susanne Spector, chief economist at Danske Bank.
BusinessHeavily indebted households and companies should brace for higher interest rates. The Swedish Central Bank's own forecast has the main scenario of raising the key interest rate two or three times, starting before the end of the year. And there could be more increases than that if the next government does not tighten fiscal policy, warns Riksbank Governor Erik Thedéen.
BusinessClear signals of future interest rate hikes from the European Central Bank (ECB) or an unexpectedly high US inflation figure could eventually push up mortgage rates in Sweden. A first step could be for the Swedish Central Bank, in two weeks, to signal an interest rate hike later this year.
BusinessStrong GDP figures, positive household sentiment and a buoyant economy increase the risk that the Swedish Central Bank will raise the key interest rate already this year, according to Nordea. State-owned SBAB, in turn, predicts a hike in the key interest rate in November this year. Amanda Sundström at SEB does not quite agree.
BusinessAs expected, the Swedish Central Bank is leaving the key interest rate unchanged at 1.75 percent. However, Riksbank Governor Erik Thedéen and his executive board continue to signal a possible interest rate increase later this year.
BusinessThe European Central Bank (ECB) will release its interest rate decision on Thursday. High energy prices in the euro area are putting heavy pressure on the bank, while the Swedish Riksbank is in a significantly calmer position.
BusinessYou're up to date in Amanda Sundström
That's every story in Amanda Sundström for now.
