On Tuesday, it's time again. On site in Malmö, the central bank governor Erik Thedéen will announce the board's interest rate decision.
The steering rate – which in just over a year has been halved from 4 to 2 percent has a major impact on variable mortgage rates.
Were the interest rate on a mortgage of three million kronor to be lowered by 0.5 percentage points, it would reduce the cost of the loan by 1,250 kronor per month, if one disregards the effects of the interest deduction.
Believe in a reduction
But it's far from certain what the decision will be this time.
In a survey conducted by major bank SEB with interest rate managers, 6 out of 10 (64 percent) believe that the Swedish Central Bank will leave the interest rate unchanged. The rest believe in an interest rate cut of 0.25 percentage points.
One of these is SEB itself and the bank's interest rate and currency strategist Amanda Sundström:
This inflation increase that occurred during the summer is with fairly high probability temporary and will cease to be a problem in the second half of the year, she says to TT regarding the factor that affects the Swedish Central Bank in its decision.
Through this, we think that the inflation specter is a bit out of the picture and then the Swedish Central Bank can focus more on the economic situation.
Another factor that contributes to the belief in an interest rate cut from SEB's side is a continued weak labor market.
Overall, we think it's enough for the Swedish Central Bank to lower the interest rate and then rather in September than in November, she says.
Do not share the picture
This picture is not shared, however, by Nordea and the bank's chief analyst Torbjörn Isaksson. At Nordea, one believes not only that the interest rate will remain unchanged next week but that the Swedish Central Bank has lowered enough.
What we can see is that the economy has recovered and the recovery has started again. The downturn we had at the beginning of the year led the Swedish Central Bank to lower the steering rate earlier this year, but as the economy has strengthened, the argument for further reduction has decreased, Isaksson motivates.
Until the next interest rate decision later this year, Nordea's assessment is also that the Swedish economy has recovered further.
Therefore, it will not be relevant to consider a reduction in November either. Then one has simply lowered enough, Isaksson believes.
