Riksbank signals possible rate hike later this year as it leaves key rate unchanged at 1.75%

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Riksbank signals possible rate hike later this year as it leaves key rate unchanged at 1.75%
Photo: Lars Schröder/TT

Erik Thedéen notes that growth over the summer has shown signs of strength, which has not, however, had any impact on either employment or unemployment in Sweden.

And we have received a higher inflation outcome than we and many others thought in June, says Erik Thedéen at a press conference.

Overall, the outlook and forecasts hold up - broadly speaking, he adds, referring to the Swedish Central Bank's monetary policy report in June.

Positive economic signals

The war in Iran looks set to continue, according to Thedéen. But the direct effects of supply disruptions there are somewhat less than feared.

It may be that markets have been better at adapting than we thought, he says.

He notes positive economic signals from Europe and an improved mood, while AI investments in the US are fuelling the economy.

Overall, it is still a strong economic development, he says.

He adds that although the probability of an interest rate hike may have increased somewhat in light of the unexpectedly high inflation figures, it is still not possible to say whether or when such an increase could be relevant.

"We're not sure about that," he says.

Susanne Spector, chief economist at Danske Bank, describes the announcement as "soft".

Before the announcement, Danske Bank economists had expected a rate hike as early as September and another hike later. But Thursday's announcement means that the hike she had seen coming has been pushed back, likely to November.

They downplay the greater inflation risks and the better GDP development that we see, she says.

But I think it's reasonable to continue to expect that the next step is an increase and that the increases are not very far away.

Softer than expected

Amanda Sundström, interest rate strategist at SEB, shares the same interpretation, even though she had not seen as many interest rate increases ahead as Spector before the announcement.

"It's softer than the market had expected. It's softer than many investors and, in many cases, we as bank analysts had expected," she says of the interest rate announcement.

The krona and Swedish market interest rates moved marginally lower immediately after the interest rate announcement.

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By TT News AgencyEnglish edition by Sweden Herald, adapted for our readers

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