The trade war that took off after President Donald Trump's tariff shock on April 2 has made profits, sales, and even order intake in the first quarter quite uninteresting for the stock market.
This can go down in history as one of the most irrelevant reporting seasons ever, says Lars Söderfjell, stock market manager at Ålandsbanken.
Large sales in the USA
Now everything is about tariffs. And how tariffs affect Swedish listed companies is hard to say as long as there is no tariff agreement between the EU and the USA.
"Those who get the most problems are those who sell a lot in the USA, manufactured in China or Asia – or other countries with really high tariffs, especially if they have competitors with local production in the USA," writes Esbjörn Lundevall, stock strategist at SEB in a comment.
Swedish companies that export steel and cars to the USA are currently facing 25 percent tariffs. Soon, the same tariff rate may apply to car parts and pharmaceuticals.
Among Swedish listed companies, Securitas and Skanska have a very large sales volume in the USA. But their production is very domestic in character, and then tariffs do not really play a role – as long as the economy is not negatively affected.
For others – such as Sandvik and SKF – the situation is much more precarious. They are also exposed to the USA, but have a very large proportion of imports in their production and sales in the USA.
"The uncertainty is enormous"
Paused investments and scrapped forecasts can become a recurring theme in the reports. But decisions to move production or make large staff cuts are not expected – yet.
The tariff issue needs to be resolved first, says Hedberg.
The Stockholm stock exchange has lost around 8 percent since the beginning of the year. This despite the boost after Trump's pause of parts of the tariffs. If the EU can make a deal with Trump and stabilize the tariff issue – and central banks lower interest rates – there may be a recovery later this year, the pros believe.
But in the current situation, it leans more towards us still seeing high risks. I don't think we've seen the last of the tariffs yet, says Hedberg.
"There are absolutely opportunities for a strong recovery and the year ending on a two-digit plus, but the uncertainty is enormous," writes Lundevall.
It can end on a plus. But then you need to come up with good trade agreements that make the economy get new momentum, says Söderfjell.
Joakim Goksör/TT
Facts: Now come the interim reports
TT
The listed companies' reporting season has already started, in Stockholm with, among others, Industrivärden and real estate companies such as Atrium Ljungberg and Platzer – and in the USA with major banks such as JP Morgan Chase.
Here are the dates for the reports from major Swedish listed companies in the coming weeks:
Monday, April 14: Fabege
Tuesday, April 15: Ericsson, Scandic Hotels, Avanza
Wednesday, April 16: Nordea, Byggmax, Sandvik, Autoliv
Thursday, April 17: ABB
Tuesday, April 22: Getinge
Wednesday, April 23: Tele2, Boliden, Assa Abloy, Investor, AB Volvo
Thursday, April 24: Axfood, Essity, Telia, Husqvarna, Nordnet, Kinnevik, JM, Trelleborg, Fortnox, Viaplay
Friday, April 25: SKF, Saab, Stora Enso, SCA, Bilia, Hemnet, Duni, Boozt
Monday, April 28: Wallenstam, Wihlborgs Fastigheter, Traton/Scania
Tuesday, April 29: SEB, Swedbank, Volvo Cars, SSAB, Astra Zeneca, Electrolux, Betsson, NCC, Vattenfall, Atlas Copco, Scandi Standard, Spotify
Wednesday, April 30: Handelsbanken, Evolution
Thursday, May 1: Lundin Mining
