The challenge for Johnson, as always, is that he will need almost all Republican votes to win.
He has an ace up his sleeve. Earlier in the week, the incoming President Donald Trump expressed his support for the party colleague to continue as Speaker.
However, it is uncertain whether Trump's blessing will be enough to convince the more extreme Republicans who have sometimes shown frustration over Johnson's leadership. They are also prone to demand concessions when their votes become decisive.
Allies became opponents
Louisiana Republican Johnson, 52, was elected as Speaker in October 2023, after Republicans had fought for 22 days to replace party colleague Kevin McCarthy following a historic vote. Several candidates tried and failed before Johnson was elected.
But Johnson's handling of several budget disputes, including a support package to Ukraine last spring and most recently a struggle over a temporary agreement to avoid a government shutdown, has made at least some former allies into opponents.
And with the Republicans' narrow majority in the House of Representatives, according to AP, it only takes two Republicans to vote for another candidate for Johnson to lose.
Can win with fewer votes
Republicans chose Johnson as their candidate for the Speaker post in a closed vote in November. Democrats, in turn, are expected to cast their votes for minority leader Hakeem Jeffries from New York.
Historically, the magic number for a majority has been 218 out of 435 members – but many previous Speakers – including McCarthy – have won with fewer votes. If Johnson does not reach a majority, it is likely that a new vote with a roll call will be initiated.
McCarthy went through 15 drawn-out votes over four days before he got enough support to become the 55th Speaker in January 2023.
