After two consecutive quarters with completely absent investments in new wind turbines, two new orders for turbines were made during the fourth quarter.
A trend break?
No, I would say it's too early to say that, says Anton Johansson.
The investment level throughout last year is far below the levels needed to meet the upcoming electricity demand that authorities and others are outlining.
Too much electricity
The market conditions for building new wind farms are poor, according to Johansson. There are many companies that have all permits and conditions in place, but the calculations often don't add up.
Construction costs have increased during the inflation years. And electricity prices are far too low, at least in northern Sweden where the conditions for building are best.
It's simply a supply surplus, which is pressing prices, says Anton Johansson.
A surplus that, at least in the short term, is due to many paused energy-intensive industrial projects.
Now, perhaps people in Skåne or Stockholm don't think electricity prices are too low. But wind power projects are largely located in Norrland. And there, the electricity price has been around 10-20 öre per kWh on the Nord Pool exchange for most of 2024. A rule of thumb is that wind farm owners need an electricity price of around 35-40 öre/kWh for the calculation to work, according to Anton Johansson.
Wind power and nuclear power
For offshore wind power, which is significantly more expensive to build, the conditions for profit are even worse at present.
But despite this - production from wind power is still increasing due to old investment decisions that are gradually being completed. Last year, new production records were reached, and during the six-month period from August 2024 to January 2025, wind power produced more than nuclear power, according to statistics from Svenska kraftnät.
Still, it will take a while before wind power surpasses nuclear power on an annual basis. During the summer, there is often a lack of wind, which pulls down the total.
