"Severe Setback for Iran's Influence"

Through kidnappings, assassinations, and training and arming militias, Iran has managed to deter its enemies from attacking the country directly. But as the region's conflicts are now being fought with more conventional warfare, the network is suffering heavy losses – which can increase the risk of full-scale war between major powers.

» Published: October 21 2024

"Severe Setback for Iran's Influence"
Photo: Vahid Salemi/AP/TT

With military forces and militias that in practice surround archenemy Israel, the regime in Tehran has for many years been able to pursue an aggressive policy without risking a larger conflict on home turf.

But that is about to change.

Iran's activities abroad are best described as asymmetric warfare and include terrorist attacks, kidnappings, espionage, and above all, support to militias that are trained, armed, and financed by Iran.

In this way, the power of the Islamic Republic has grown in tandem with the instability in the region – such as the US war in Iraq and the Arab Spring with the subsequent Syrian war – which has opened up opportunities, for example, for Iranian arms deliveries.

The crown jewel in the network is the Shia militia Hezbollah, which Iran helped establish as early as 1982 when southern Lebanon was under Israeli occupation.

The Goal: To Annihilate Israel

Iran's allies can be divided into two different branches: the ideological, who often share the regime's Shia Muslim faith, and the tactically allied who cooperate with Iran because they share a common enemy.

The most important regional goal for Iran has been to annihilate Israel since the Islamic Republic was established, says Saeid Golkar, lecturer in political science and Iran expert, affiliated with several international think tanks.

But when the region's conflicts are now being played out with "conventional" warfare – with state actors attacking in the open – the Iranian network is wavering.

They are not designed for conventional warfare, says Golkar.

In Gaza, the tactically allied Hamas's military activities have practically been dismantled by Israel.

The heavily armed Hezbollah, with the ability to inflict significant damage on Israel from its positions on the border, has often been described as a kind of "insurance" for Iran. But the Shia militia has been severely weakened by the near-total elimination of its top leadership and the destruction of large parts of its weapons depots.

As the war is now raging in Lebanon – where the Shia Muslim population has been one of Iran's strongest supporters in the region – Tehran lacks the means to rebuild the destroyed villages and gain influence through aid efforts, which Iran has done during previous wars.

Israel has also struck against the roads and tunnels in Syria that Iran, thanks to its support for dictator Bashar al-Assad, has been able to use to smuggle weapons to its allies.

At the same time, the US is bombing weapons depots and other targets in Yemen, belonging to the Iran-backed Houthi militia.

"Significant Setback"

The recent losses are estimated to take many years to rebuild.

One can conclude that it is a significant setback for Iran's influence, says Erika Holmquist, researcher at the Total Defense Research Institute (FOI) with a focus on Iran.

And without the armed movements and militias capable of functioning as a deterrent, the risk of a direct confrontation between Israel and Iran increases, according to Holmquist.

The conflict has already led to Iran firing missiles at Israel from Iranian soil for the first time – twice.

The regime in Tehran is aware that Iran would likely lose a full-scale war against Israel with the US in the background – and would probably avoid it at all costs.

They are afraid that a war will lead to mass uprisings that will lead to the collapse of the Islamic Republic, says Saeid Golkar.

Iran's military activities abroad often take place through the so-called Revolutionary Guard, whose secretive special unit Quds is responsible for "spreading the Islamic revolution" abroad.

The Quds force can be described as the spider in the military network that Iran has spun in the region. It was established during the war between Iran and Iraq in the 1980s, but developed over the decades that followed to act more offensively in more countries, such as Syria, Lebanon, and Yemen.

The Revolutionary Guard, and the military units that are part of it, are not part of Iran's national military.

It was founded shortly after the Islamic Revolution in 1979 because Iran's highest leader did not trust that the military, which the deposed monarch had controlled, would protect the new theological government, which is one of the Revolutionary Guard's main tasks.

Tags

TTT
By TTThis article has been altered and translated by Sweden Herald

More news

Volcanic Activity Prompts Evacuation in
1 MIN READ

Volcanic Activity Prompts Evacuation in Iceland's Grindavík

Myanmar Observes Silence for 2,700
3 MIN READ

Myanmar Observes Silence for 2,700 Earthquake Victims

UNICEF Reports Over 300 Children
1 MIN READ

UNICEF Reports Over 300 Children Killed in Gaza in Recent Conflict

Over 110 Injured as Massive
2 MIN READ

Over 110 Injured as Massive Fire Erupts Near Kuala Lumpur

Netanyahu Reconsiders Security Chief Appointment,
1 MIN READ

Netanyahu Reconsiders Security Chief Appointment, Seeks New Candidates

SpaceX Launches Historic 46-Minute Pole-to-Pole
2 MIN READ

SpaceX Launches Historic 46-Minute Pole-to-Pole Journey

Løkke and Rubio to Discuss
1 MIN READ

Løkke and Rubio to Discuss US-Denmark Tensions Over Greenland

China to Engage in Peace
1 MIN READ

China to Engage in Peace Efforts for Ukraine Conflict Resolution

China Conducts Major Military Drills
1 MIN READ

China Conducts Major Military Drills Near Taiwan's Coast

Republicans Explore Path for Trump
3 MIN READ

Republicans Explore Path for Trump 2028 Third Term Bid

British Adventurer Becomes First Woman
1 MIN READ

British Adventurer Becomes First Woman to Solo Ski Across Baffin Island

Israeli Strike in Beirut Kills
1 MIN READ

Israeli Strike in Beirut Kills Three, Violates Ceasefire Agreement

Trump Sees Parallels Between Le
1 MIN READ

Trump Sees Parallels Between Le Pen Verdict and His Own Legal Battles

Harrods Launches Fund to Compensate
1 MIN READ

Harrods Launches Fund to Compensate Victims of al-Fayed's Abuse

Bosnian Serb Leader Dodik Confirms
1 MIN READ

Bosnian Serb Leader Dodik Confirms Arrival in Moscow

US Reacts to Le Pen's
2 MIN READ

US Reacts to Le Pen's Election Ban and Fraud Verdict

Putin Orders 160,000 New Conscripts
1 MIN READ

Putin Orders 160,000 New Conscripts for Russian Military Expansion

Zelensky Calls for European Unity
2 MIN READ

Zelensky Calls for European Unity at Butja Massacre Memorial

Japan's Mega-Quake Risk: New Estimate
1 MIN READ

Japan's Mega-Quake Risk: New Estimate Predicts 298,000 Lives at Stake

US Sanctions Hong Kong Police
1 MIN READ

US Sanctions Hong Kong Police Chief Over Rights Restrictions

Verdict Against Le Pen Casts
2 MIN READ

Verdict Against Le Pen Casts Doubt on Presidential Ambitions

UAE Court Sentences Three Uzbeks
1 MIN READ

UAE Court Sentences Three Uzbeks to Death for Rabbi's Murder

Central Asian Nations Resolve Fergana
1 MIN READ

Central Asian Nations Resolve Fergana Valley Dispute

1,001 Killed in Gaza After
1 MIN READ

1,001 Killed in Gaza After Ceasefire Ends, Health Officials Report

Putin Open to Talks with
1 MIN READ

Putin Open to Talks with Trump Despite Recent Tensions

Democrats Seek New Leadership as
6 MIN READ

Democrats Seek New Leadership as Trump Dominates US Politics

Genre image
1 MIN READ

Explosion in Spanish Coal Mine Claims Five Lives

Hamas Urges Global Resistance to
1 MIN READ

Hamas Urges Global Resistance to Trump's Controversial Gaza Plan

Families Hold Vigil at Bangkok
2 MIN READ

Families Hold Vigil at Bangkok Skyscraper Collapse Site

Swedish Man Extradited to Norway
1 MIN READ

Swedish Man Extradited to Norway in Major Drug Trafficking Case

Netanyahu Accuses Judiciary of Holding
2 MIN READ

Netanyahu Accuses Judiciary of Holding Bribery Suspects Hostage

Marine Le Pen Barred from
3 MIN READ

Marine Le Pen Barred from 2027 Election After Embezzlement Verdict

Zelensky Prepares for Possible Ukrainian
1 MIN READ

Zelensky Prepares for Possible Ukrainian Election This Summer

Three Missing US Soldiers in
1 MIN READ

Three Missing US Soldiers in Lithuania Found Dead

Russia Accuses Ukraine of Power
2 MIN READ

Russia Accuses Ukraine of Power Line Attacks Amid Drone Strikes

Israel Urges Palestinians in Southern
1 MIN READ

Israel Urges Palestinians in Southern Gaza to Relocate to al-Mawasi

Iran Vows Powerful Response if
1 MIN READ

Iran Vows Powerful Response if US Launches Attack

Three Found Dead in Southern
1 MIN READ

Three Found Dead in Southern Norway; Police Investigate Link

Netanyahu Appoints New Security Chief
1 MIN READ

Netanyahu Appoints New Security Chief Despite Court Block and Protests

Myanmar Earthquake Claims Over 2,000
2 MIN READ

Myanmar Earthquake Claims Over 2,000 Lives, Thousands Injured