Paasikivi: Russia Feeling Pressure Amid US Threats Over Ukraine

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Paasikivi: Russia Feeling Pressure Amid US Threats Over Ukraine
Photo: Jessica Gow/TT

High tariffs against Russia and its trading partners, as well as "first-class weapons" to Ukraine. This is what US President Donald Trump is threatening with if Moscow does not make peace with Ukraine within 50 days. Russia is already stressed, says military expert Joakim Paasikivi.

The message comes in connection with a meeting with NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte at the White House on Monday.

An agreement where European countries buy from the US and donate further, will give Ukraine "massive" amounts of "first-class weapons", according to Trump.

A way for the president to have his cake and eat it, says Joakim Paasikivi, former teacher of military strategy at the Defense University.

He appeases parts of the Maga movement (Trump's voter base) by saying that the Europeans do as we say, they stand for security, and I am a good negotiator who gets them to pay. Then we'll see how upset the extreme Maga wing, which is closer to Russia's line, becomes.

Possible shift

He does not want to draw too large conclusions from the message from the capricious Trump. But after several Putin-critical statements in a row, he sees a possible new American line – and growing Russian concern.

Russia is already stressed. The Kremlin's spokesperson Dmitry Peskov says it is important that the negotiations continue, says Paasikivi.

In Russian social media and elsewhere, there is concern about a qualitative change in arms support to Ukraine, i.e. not just defense systems, but also more long-range weapons that Ukraine can strike with inside Russia.

On Sunday, American time, the US announced that it will resume deliveries of the Patriot air defense system to Ukraine. An important countermeasure against Russia's attempts to "force Ukraine to its knees", according to the military expert.

But it is not possible to defend oneself to victory.

Long-range missiles

It is unclear which potential offensive weapons are included in the agreement, but according to sources to Axios, it may be possible to send American long-range missiles to Ukraine.

From the Russian side, one is forced to redeploy, not least, one's own air defense to protect targets further into the country. If one can then continue to strike at vital war industries from the Ukrainian side – industries, logistics routes, oil industry and more – it will have a good effect together with the sanctions.

Is it conceivable with peace within 50 days?

If one is credible in being able to put force behind the words from the American side, one might – maybe – be able to get a ceasefire agreement that could lead to more qualitative negotiations. But there is nothing in the Russian line so far that suggests it.

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By TTEnglish edition by Sweden Herald, adapted for local and international readers

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