As early as Wednesday, re-elected Commission President Ursula von der Leyen may present her new commission.
The curiosity is at its peak. Who gets which assignment will give a clear indication of what the EU and von der Leyen will focus on in the coming years – and in what way.
For example, a new post as Defense Commissioner has been promised. But what the assignment will entail and with what powers is still unclear. And the emphasis will likely be completely different if the post is held by a Commissioner from a Baltic country near Russia or by a Southern European with a strong defense industry.
The same applies to the expansion, which many EU countries in the East and West have completely different opinions about.
Expansion?
Both defense and expansion are posts that have been speculated about as possible assignments for Sweden's incoming Commissioner Jessika Roswall. The influential think tank EPC has gone so far as to basically rule out all other countries mentioned as potentially responsible for expansion.
The government has simultaneously clearly stated that it would like to see an economic role for Roswall, for example in trade, the internal market, or competitiveness. The heaviest economic posts are unlikely to be available, given that Sweden is not part of the euro cooperation.
Among other speculations are that French Thierry Breton will continue with industry, Czech Jozef Sikela will get responsibility for energy, and Polish Piotr Serafin for the budget. Finnish Henna Virkkunen is tipped to get research and innovation, while Danish Dan Jørgensen and Spanish Teresa Ribera will handle climate and environment.
Tough for Fitto
Regardless of what von der Leyen proposes, a lot of changes are expected during the process. All Commissioners will be scrutinized by MEPs, who will not hesitate to say no to those who are not deemed suitable.
Italian Raffaele Fitto, from the far-right party Brothers of Italy, can already count on getting a tough ride, since it has leaked that he may become one of the new Commission's vice-presidents. This is not liked by the liberal party group RE.
It is politically incomprehensible, and I have already made it clear to Ursula von der Leyen that it cannot be, said French group leader Valérie Hayer on French TV last week.
Here are the important dates for the appointment of the next EU Commission:
* Wednesday, September 11: Commission President Ursula von der Leyen meets EU Parliament group leaders to discuss "structure and portfolios"
* Monday, September 23: earliest possible day for the start of EU Parliament committee hearings of nominated Commissioners. The hearings are not expected to begin until at least October 14
* Wednesday, October 23: earliest possible day for a vote on the approval of the entire Commission. This is unlikely to happen until November 27
* Friday, November 1: provisional date for the takeover. This is expected to happen no earlier than December 1 or even January 1, 2025
The following persons have been nominated for the next EU Commission:
Germany: Ursula von der Leyen – already re-elected for another five years as President
Estonia: newly departed Prime Minister Kaja Kallas – already nominated as Vice-President and Foreign Minister
Belgium: Foreign Minister Hadja Lahbib
Bulgaria: former Foreign Minister Ekaterina Zaharjeva and former Environment Minister Julian Popov
Cyprus: former Environment and Agriculture Minister Costas Kadis
Denmark: Development and Climate Minister Dan Jørgensen
Finland: MEP Henna Virkkunen
France: Industry and Internal Market Commissioner Thierry Breton
Greece: Regional Governor Apostolos Tzitzikostas
Ireland: Finance Minister Michael McGrath
Italy: European Minister Raffaele Fitto
Croatia: Democracy and Demography Commissioner Dubravka Suica
Latvia: Finance and Trade Commissioner Valdis Dombrovskis
Lithuania: MEP Andris Kubilius
Luxembourg: MEP Christophe Hansen
Malta: Civil Servant Glenn Micallef
Netherlands: Climate Commissioner Wopke Hoekstra
Poland: EU Ambassador Piotr Serafin
Portugal: former Finance Minister Maris Luís Albuquerque
Romania: MEP Roxana Minzatu
Slovakia: Climate and Institutions Commissioner Maros Sefcovic
Slovenia: Diplomat and former Presidential Candidate Marta Kos (since the first nominated, former Chief Justice Tomaz Vesel, withdrew)
Spain: Climate Minister Teresa Ribera
Sweden: EU Minister Jessika Roswall
Czech Republic: Energy and Industry Minister Jozef Sikela
Hungary: Expansion Commissioner Olivér Várhelyi
Austria: Finance Minister Magnus Brunner
Note: Bulgaria is the only country that has followed von der Leyen's call to nominate both a man and a woman. Only one of them will be appointed, however.
