The Swedish Central Bank is lowering the interest rate twice this year – from 2.25 to 1.75 percent – believes Handelsbanken's economists according to a fresh prognosis.
"The Swedish Central Bank can lower the interest rate without risking an increasing inflation", says chief economist Christina Nyman in a press release.
First lowering in June
Nyman expects the first lowering to be followed by another lowering in August.
Earlier, Nyman and her team of economists expected three lowerings to 1.50 percent in the interest rate this year.
But the prospects for the Swedish economy do not look quite as dark now as they did in Handelsbanken's prognosis update at the beginning of April, notes the bank in its report. The BNP growth rate this year is estimated to be 1.5 percent, compared to earlier 1.4 percent. Even for 2026, the BNP prognosis is raised, to 2.1 percent from earlier 1.8 percent.
The strong rise of the krona against other currencies this year creates room for interest rate lowerings.
"The krona is expected to continue strengthening, especially against the dollar, but at a slower pace, writes Handelsbanken.
The krona is expected to have risen to exchange rates of 10.80 kronor per euro and 9.15 kronor per dollar by the end of 2025. The krona strengthening continues then in 2026-2027, according to Handelsbanken, to 10.50 respectively 8.90 kronor.
So far this year, the krona has strengthened by almost 13 percent against the dollar, to 9.65 kronor. Against the euro, the increase is over 5 percent this year, to the exchange rate of 10.87 kronor per euro.
Next interest rate announcement in June
In the major bank SEB's prognosis, which came two weeks ago, a interest rate lowering by the Swedish Central Bank this year was included. Swedbank's economists, in turn, had two lowerings in their main prognosis, also presented two weeks ago.
On Wednesday morning, Nordea's economists will also present their latest economic prognosis. Ahead of that, the prognosis is that the Swedish Central Banken at 2.25 percent 2025-2026.
An unchanged interest rate is also what the Swedish Central Bank has as its main scenario in its interest rate path – but with the twist that the Swedish Central Bank governor Erik Thedéen has since the beginning of May said that the probability of it actually becoming a lowering this year has increased during the spring.
The next interest rate announcement from the Swedish Central Banken, which left the interest rate unchanged at the May meeting, will come on June 18.
