European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen declares herself the winner in the EU election, where both the right and the far-right are moving forward.
The question is whether the losers in Germany and France will give her their support.
According to the European Parliament's own forecasts, the Christian Democratic conservative party group EPP will again be the largest group. This sets the stage for a new term as Commission President for EPP's top candidate Ursula von der Leyen.
According to the latest forecast from the Parliament, her EPP – which also includes the Swedish M and KD – is expected to win 189 seats in the incoming Parliament.
The far-right is growing at the same time. The SD party group, the EU-skeptical conservative ECR, is expected to win 72 seats, while Marine Le Pen's ID lands on 58. There are also a large number of far-right seats among the unaffiliated and parties that have not yet announced which group they will join.
The biggest uncertainty is how the various far-right parties will form themselves and which ones are willing to cooperate with each other. For example, the German AfD was recently expelled from the ID group after several scandals surrounding the top candidate Maximilian Krah.
The results give the three centre groups – the conservative EPP, the liberal RE and the social democratic S&D – a good majority with 407 of the 720 seats. This enables a relatively stable majority behind von der Leyen as President of the European Commission.
However, everything hangs on how Germany and France will act. German Chancellor Olaf Scholz and French President Emmanuel Macron have noted a crushing defeat for their parties in the election.
Now their party groups must swallow their pride and stand behind von der Leyen.
Among many conservatives in EPP, there has been a desire to cooperate more with the right within ECR – which, however, both social democrats and liberals have wanted to say no to. Even the Greens think that cooperation should take place in their direction instead.
Here are the expected sizes of the party groups in the European Parliament according to the Parliament's own forecasts (compared to the current situation):
Christian Democratic conservative EPP: 189 (+13)
Social Democratic S&D: 135 (-4)
Liberals RE: 83 (-19)
EU-skeptical conservative ECR: 72 (+3)
EU-critical far-right ID: 58 (+9)
Environmentalists The Greens/EFA: 53 (-18)
Left group GUE/NGL: 35 (-2)
Unaffiliated: 45 (-17)
Others: 50 (+50)
Voter turnout is estimated at 51%, a marginal increase compared to 2019.
Source: European Parliament
