Trump has announced that he plans to introduce tariffs of 25 percent on steel imports. The tariffs will cover imports from all countries, but it is unclear when they will come into effect.
Swedish steel industry exports mainly to the EU and the UK, but around eight percent of the total steel export goes to the USA, according to the industry organization Jernkontoret.
Mathias Ternell states that Trump's statement is not unexpected.
Even during his first presidential term, Trump introduced 25 percent tariffs, among other things, against the EU.
This led to a decline in Swedish steel exports to the USA by a few percent to around six percent, as a share of total exports. Since Sweden mainly exports special steel, which is important for American industry, some exemptions from the tariffs were granted.
Normal levels
The EU responded, among other things, with trade measures against other American goods. The EU also introduced a tariff quota to protect its own steel industry against increased imports of steel from the world market that no longer went to the USA.
When Joe Biden became president in 2021, talks began on an agreement that would involve the EU and the USA forming a green steel club, which would impose tariffs on steel whose production causes high carbon dioxide emissions, as well as on subsidized steel production.
While the negotiations were ongoing, the USA converted its 25 percent tariffs against the EU into an import quota instead, where tariffs would apply only when steel imports exceeded normal levels.
During those years, Swedish exports to the USA returned to normal levels, says Ternell.
"Not downplaying"
The EU and the USA have, however, had difficulty agreeing on the new agreement, and a deadline was set for March 2025. If it is not resolved, they will revert to how it was before the talks about the agreement started.
So it's not particularly unexpected what Trump is now proposing – that we're going back to the tariffs, says Ternell.
I think we'll get the same type of development as we had after 2019, that we'll lose a few percent (of USA exports) as a share of total steel exports.
How serious is it?
You shouldn't downplay the USA as an export market, because it's our most important market outside of Europe. In 2022, exports were 5.8 billion kronor, so it's clear that we're talking about money.
