Donald Trump promised Americans a "boom like no other" if they elected him as president. When it's time to summarize the first 100 days in office, the picture is different. Trump's tariff gamble has caused stock markets to plummet, American long-term interest rates to soar, and the dollar to lose value. And more and more people fear that a recession may be looming.
It's obvious that the market doesn't agree that tariffs are the right strategy to lift the US, says Maria Landeborn, senior strategist at Danske Bank.
More Constructive
Overall, the effect was too much even for Trump, who a week after "Liberation Day" on April 2 paused most tariffs for 90 days. And now, slightly more constructive tones are emerging from Washington, according to Maria Landeborn.
Apparently, there is some responsiveness to market reactions, and perhaps to what people in his vicinity say. It didn't seem so in the beginning, but I think it's visible now, and that's a good sign, she says.
She highlights that Trump's U-turn has contributed to rising stock markets both in the US and globally. Last week, the Stockholm stock exchange rose by 2.7 percent and the European large-cap index by 2.8 percent. The American large-cap index went up by 4.7 percent and the technology index by 6.8 percent. Looking at the figures from the turn of the year, the Stockholm stock exchange is down by about 3 percent, while the American stock exchanges show a more significant minus.
Optimism
Landeborn sees "a bit more optimism", based on somewhat more constructive statements from Trump. But the uncertainty is still great. The tariffs that have been introduced will be felt in companies' figures only later on.
And then we'll see what reactions we get – it depends on what we see. If the US enters into trade agreements with the rest of the world and reaches an agreement with China, so that we get more positive signals, then I think the market can look through somewhat weaker figures in the short term, she says.
When it comes to advice for savers, not much has changed as a result of recent developments, according to Maria Landeborn. It's about spreading the risk and continuing to save even in times of turbulence.
Stick to long-term savings even when the stock market goes down and dare to count on it continuing to rise over time, she says.
