Currently, around 11,000 places in prisons and institutions need to grow to 29,000 by 2034.
The figures come from a report from the authority. While waiting for decisions from the government and parliament on the Tidö Agreement's criminal policy reforms, they refer to four scenarios regarding the size of the expansion, based on which political decisions are ultimately made.
Reduced staffing
Being able to use ankle monitors to a greater extent, instead of prison sentences, is an example that is believed to reduce the burden. But if the proposal to tighten the routines for conditional release comes into force, the need may become even greater.
No matter how the development turns out, we see a very large expansion ahead of us, says the Director-General of the Prison and Probation Service, Martin Holmgren.
Although the number of places is to be tripled, it is estimated that it will be difficult to increase the staff by more than a doubling. The staffing density will therefore need to be reduced by 30 percent, according to the report.
A special challenge, according to Holmgren, who sees smarter working methods and increased digitalization as tools for the transformation. This despite already seeing risks with double occupancy of inmates, security issues, and work environment issues.
Increased risks
The chairman of the trade union Seko, Gabriella Lavecchia, views the prognosis of reduced staffing density seriously and says that the situation for the union's members in the Prison and Probation Service is already strained.
Working with smarter working methods and more technical tools can, according to her, only be seen as a complement, rather than something that can replace staff.
We see that threats and violence are increasing, undue influence is increasing. We see with great concern that we are heading towards a situation where staffing density decreases further.
According to the Prison and Probation Service's report, about 80 percent of all institutional places are theoretically possible to test for double occupancy, which, according to Lavecchia, increases the risks. Today, around two-thirds of the inmates in institutions already share rooms.
It's something you can have when it's necessary, but it can't be the new normal, she says.
Around 11,000 places in institutions and prisons are to become 29,000 by 2034.
The figure is an estimate, based on scenarios about which reforms come into force.
If all reforms and proposals in the government's reform agenda come into force during the term of office, the need is estimated to be 38,500 places. The largest difference lies in whether the system for conditional release is changed.
But proposals that, for example, make it possible to serve sentences in other ways can also mean that the need in 2034 is instead 18,000 places.
During the same period, the staff in the Prison and Probation Service's core operations are to go from around 14,000 to 28,700.
Source: The Prison and Probation Service.
