On average, households' variable mortgage rates have fallen by 1.4 percentage points over the past year, slightly less than the decrease made by the Swedish Central Bank during the same period, according to new SCB statistics.
SEB, Danske Bank, and Swedbank were the first banks to announce a decrease in mortgage rates following the Swedish Central Bank's decision to lower the repo rate by 0.25 percentage points. Nordea and Länsförsäkringar Bank soon followed.
Look out for yourself
The Swedish Central Bank does not believe in any further decreases. However, the banks' economists make different forecasts about whether the repo rate will be lowered further. Instead of trying to time the market and adjust one's loan, one should look out for oneself – since we do not know what will happen, according to Sahlberg.
Historically, we know that it has been economically best most of the time to have a variable rate. If one is not worried about not knowing exactly what one is paying all the time, then a variable rate is best.
If one is certain that one will stay and is a bit worried, then it does not have to be wrong to lock in now.
Many see it as a bit of a toss-up right now – whether to lock in for two or three years or have a variable rate – the cost will be roughly the same. But we do not know how the global situation will affect, emphasizes Sahlberg.
"Impossible to know"
According to Sahlberg, it is likely that there will be a half percentage point lower variable mortgage rate, but it could also be more.
It is impossible to know. One must hope for the best but be prepared for there not being many more decreases, she says.
We have seen that the Swedish Central Bank's decreases have directly affected the variable mortgage rates by roughly the same amount. So one should make sure that one's bank lowers by roughly the same amount as the Swedish Central Bank does.
