"No one has any idea" about how many of the hostages taken from Israel during the terrorist attacks on October 7 who are still alive, said senior Hamas commander Osama Hamdan, who is in Beirut, to CNN last summer.
According to Israeli estimates, around 60 of the approximately 100 people believed to be remaining in Gaza are thought to be alive. They have likely been divided into smaller groups and are being hidden by local cells or individuals.
But the question is whether Hamas has control over exactly where in the war-torn strip the hostages are being held.
There must be people in Hamas who have the overall picture, or at least contact with those who are hiding them, says Magnus Ranstorp, a terrorism expert who has long researched Hamas.
Tunnels in Rafah
Even if the exact locations are not known higher up in the terrorist-stamped group's command chain, there are likely ways to contact the individual cells or persons responsible for the hostages and thus be able to locate them.
Accounts from the captives who have been released during extensive and bloody operations in Gaza show that at least some of them were moved several times in the early weeks of the war, and that they were later kept in a more permanent location as Israel's control over Gaza increased.
Some hostages have been held in residential houses, in darkened rooms without windows, while most are believed to be in Hamas' extensive tunnel system underground.
In late August, Israel's military found six hostages who had recently been killed in a tunnel in Rafah in southern Gaza.
Magnus Ranstorp believes that many of the captives are located in the southernmost part of the strip, where Israel has not yet entered with the same forces as in the northern areas.
Key individuals may have been killed
Depending on the security situation, and considering Israel's extensive eavesdropping capabilities, communication between the local cells holding the hostages and the Hamas leadership likely takes a long time.
In the event of a hostage deal between Israel and Hamas, it would therefore be difficult to release all of them simultaneously. There is also a risk that the individuals responsible for the hostages locally have been captured by Israel or killed in Israeli attacks.
I think it's not easy to get an overall picture of where these people are, even for Hamas, says Ranstorp.
During the terrorist-stamped Hamas attack on Israel on October 7, 2023, around 250 people, most of them Israelis, were taken hostage and brought to Gaza. They are being held by Hamas and other armed extremist groups that participated on October 7.
During a week-long ceasefire in November, over 100 hostages were exchanged for 240 Palestinian prisoners. Several more Israelis have been released by the country's military.
Currently, it is estimated that nearly 100 hostages remain in Gaza, about 60 of them alive, according to Israel.
Since Israel declared war on Hamas after the terrorist attack, more than 43,000 people in Gaza have been killed in Israeli attacks, according to health authorities in the Hamas-controlled strip.
