For 2025, the GDP growth rate is written down from previously 2.1 percent to 1.8 percent. As for 2026, the decline is even more pronounced, from a GDP growth rate of previously 2.8 percent to 2.3 percent.
It is clear that the recovery we saw last year is broken. It is still uncertain and it can get worse or it can get better. The risks are, however, primarily on the downside, but it is still important for us to have a direction, says Finance Minister Elisabeth Svantesson (M) at a press conference.
Manageable for the labor market
The government's forecast is now in line with, for example, Swedbank's business cycle forecast presented last week. The National Institute of Economic Research (KI) General Director Albin Kainelainen that it is also in line with KI's assessment.
— It is the picture that we also have, and there is a fairly large consensus that the trade war will have negative effects, but the effects are fairly limited, even if the risks are large, says he to TT.
The significance for the Swedish economy and the consequences for the Swedish labor market is, based on the current scenario, manageable, notes Kainelainen:
— We had approximately this growth for 2025 in our forecast, and we do not see any rushing unemployment. It is clear that Swedish households and companies will have it tougher, but so far, we do not see any effects of the anxiety that has arisen, but of course, the risks have increased.
Pessimistic households
Finance Minister Elisabeth Svantesson describes the Swedish economy as being in a prolonged low-growth period. And that the American trade war creates great uncertainty and is expected to slow down the economy.
Svantesson notes that Swedish households are pessimistic.
In essence, there is great uncertainty, and so far, we do not have much data or much outcome that shows how trade has changed.
The Finance Minister sees, at the same time, positively on yesterday's trade agreement for the United Kingdom.
In essence, it is good that one can get a deal and come to a conclusion. Then one should remember that it is about higher tariffs than what we had previously.
