In the midst of trade policy uncertainty and weak GDP figures for Sweden, several signs of a brightening are visible in the Swedish economy, at least when it comes to companies. The number of bankruptcies decreased by as much as 30 percent in July compared to the same month last year, according to fresh statistics from UC.
Recovery in industries
The brightening is most evident in wholesale trade (trade with large volumes), where the decrease in bankruptcies is 45 percent and in industries such as the construction industry (23 percent) and hotels and restaurants (26 percent). The decline in the number of bankruptcies is, however, somewhat more subdued in retail trade (8 percent).
Retail trade has had a tough time for a longer period. There, consumers must catch up. It is they who drive the turnaround based on increased real wages and lower inflation and interest rates, says Amanda Aldestam.
The fewer bankruptcies confirm the picture from, among others, the National Institute of Economic Research that the country's economic recovery is beginning in the second half of 2025, she thinks.
Dampened future confidence
At the same time, surveys show that companies' confidence in the future has weakened, something that, according to Amanda Aldestam, may not be directly related to the threats of trade tariffs, but to the uncertainty that has prevailed around them.
How the recently concluded tariff agreement between the EU and the US will affect investment willingness and companies is too early to say, she states.
The market benefits from clarity. Certainly, the agreement may affect some industries negatively, but it provides some stability to start with, at least. You have something to take a stand on, says Amanda Aldestam.
