Annika Winsth thinks that the size of the investment – which the government and the Sweden Democrats have agreed on – is in line with what could be expected.
It cannot be ruled out that even more will be needed, she says.
"It will affect the market"
The stable Swedish public finances, particularly the low Swedish national debt, make her not worried that it will be a problem to get the money at reasonable interest rates.
But it will affect the market. One should remember that at the same time as we do this, many other countries are doing the same. And we can already see that interest rates with longer maturities have gone up, she adds.
The trend will continue and the interest rate situation will become generally higher in the future, she fears.
For the Swedish economy, it is possible to handle. It's just a matter of reprioritizing. But the demand for money in Europe will be higher and then the price of money, i.e. the interest rate, will also rise, she says.
Other economists – such as Professor John Hassler and Professor Emeritus Lars Calmfors – downplay the risk of large interest rate effects.
But they warn that the wave of government bonds that will now be issued on the market can undermine confidence in the fiscal policy framework and the Swedish balance goal that will begin to apply in 2027.
Sweden itself will not have a significant impact. And we're not talking about several percentage points. I dare not say exactly, but a few tenths of a percentage point is not unthinkable, says Hassler about the effects on interest rates.
"A slippery slope"
Like Calmfors, he would have preferred it if some of the costs of the investment could be covered by tax increases and reduced expenditures in other areas.
I think one should consider using not only borrowing in this case, but also higher taxes and lower expenditures. Among other things, to safeguard the framework.
Calmfors describes the loan financing as a way to shift the burden of today's financing needs to future generations.
"In practice, the borrowing means that the balance goal for 2027–2035 that the parties recently agreed on is now obsolete", he writes in an email to TT.
According to Calmfors, one is now embarking "on a slippery slope" when it comes to fiscal discipline.
"It's an unfortunate signal", he writes.
"It creates uncertainty about what fiscal policy rules apply".
