The top diplomat: Then the spiral of revenge can be broken

Israel has promised a powerful response to Tuesday's rocket rain from Iran. It may lead to further revenge actions and a large-scale war. But it can also mean that the spiral is broken, according to top diplomat Jan Eliasson. If there is a less extensive reaction, it may possibly be an end.

» Updated: October 06 2024

» Published: October 03 2024

The top diplomat: Then the spiral of revenge can be broken
Photo: Henrik Montgomery/TT

Despite Iran recently firing over 200 rockets at Israel, many analysts agree that the regime in Tehran would rather avoid a large-scale war. Nor is the US believed to want to see an escalation.

The remaining question is Israel – whose Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has promised that Iran will pay dearly. It is therefore ruled out that Israel will choose not to respond to Iran's attacks – despite international pressure for de-escalation, according to Jan Eliasson, who was Vice Secretary-General of the UN from 2012-2016.

However, there is still hope of avoiding a direct war between the two regional superpowers.

That Israel does not respond too aggressively, and that Iran chooses not to take further action against what is happening. These are the two steps that are most important, says Eliasson.

"Not so optimistic"

Peter Wallensteen, peace and conflict researcher at Uppsala University, is on the same line – but adds that the balancing act is very difficult.

Israel wants to strike so that it is substantial, so that it is noticeable. For they want to have a deterrent effect. The question is whether Israel manages to find a target that is not escalating, says he.

Large population centers or government buildings are examples of targets that can be provocative, while attacks on purely military targets do not necessarily have to lead to further response, speculates Wallensteen.

Hopefully. But I am not so optimistic, says he.

A ceasefire in Gaza, which with the latest developments in Lebanon and Iran has fallen into the background, could also cool down the situation in the entire region.

Opportunity to achieve goals?

But the escalated situation also means for Israel's part an opportunity to achieve geopolitical goals that have been set for a long time, especially by the right-wing part of the Israeli government that Netanyahu belongs to.

They have got this escalation as a kind of springboard to get at Hamas first and foremost and Hezbollah second, says Jan Eliasson.

It has also been known for a long time that Netanyahu has wanted to reduce Iran's nuclear energy program, which is feared to develop nuclear weapons.

Maybe they use the situation to do something that they have long wanted, says Eliasson.

Tags

TTT
By TTThis article has been altered and translated by Sweden Herald

More news

EU Commits 12 Billion Euros
1 MIN READ

EU Commits 12 Billion Euros to Boost Central Asia Ties

Bomb Explosion at Bolivian Gold
1 MIN READ

Bomb Explosion at Bolivian Gold Mine Kills Five in Cooperative Dispute

Israel Expands Ground Operations in
1 MIN READ

Israel Expands Ground Operations in Gaza City

Norwegian Royal Marius Borg Høiby
1 MIN READ

Norwegian Royal Marius Borg Høiby Declines Police Questioning Over Leak Fears

Trump Reshuffles Intelligence Chiefs After
2 MIN READ

Trump Reshuffles Intelligence Chiefs After Meeting with Activist Loomer

TikTok's Future in the US
3 MIN READ

TikTok's Future in the US Hangs in the Balance as Decision Looms

South Korea's Yoon Ousted After
2 MIN READ

South Korea's Yoon Ousted After Martial Law Controversy

Genre image
1 MIN READ

Norwegian Ship's Record Cocaine Haul Seized in South Korea

Putin's Envoy Sees Positive Shift
1 MIN READ

Putin's Envoy Sees Positive Shift in US-Russia Relations

Russian Drone Strikes Kill Four
1 MIN READ

Russian Drone Strikes Kill Four in Kharkiv, Injure Dozens Across Ukraine

Israel Updates Music Festival Death
2 MIN READ

Israel Updates Music Festival Death Toll to 378 After Investigation

Two Dead in Norwegian Plane
1 MIN READ

Two Dead in Norwegian Plane Crash Near Bergen Lake

Pentagon Probes Use of Signal
1 MIN READ

Pentagon Probes Use of Signal App for Discussing Yemen Attack Plans

Genre image
1 MIN READ

Frederiksen to USA: Annexation Not an Option, Let's Strengthen Arctic Security

Seoul Braces for Verdict as
3 MIN READ

Seoul Braces for Verdict as South Korea Awaits Yoon's Fate

Myanmar Earthquake Death Toll Rises
2 MIN READ

Myanmar Earthquake Death Toll Rises as Aid Efforts Intensify

Trump Fires Key Security Officials
2 MIN READ

Trump Fires Key Security Officials After Oval Office Meeting

Serbian Students Bike 130 Miles
1 MIN READ

Serbian Students Bike 130 Miles to EU Parliament Seeking Support

Iranian Judge Linked to 1988
1 MIN READ

Iranian Judge Linked to 1988 Executions Dies at 70

UN Alarmed by Reports of
1 MIN READ

UN Alarmed by Reports of Civilian Executions in Sudan

Mother and Daughter Found Shot
1 MIN READ

Mother and Daughter Found Shot Dead in Norway; Suspect Also Dead

Elon Musk to Stay as
1 MIN READ

Elon Musk to Stay as Advisor to Trump, Confirms JD Vance

Israeli Legal Experts Call for
1 MIN READ

Israeli Legal Experts Call for War Crimes Probe into Gaza Attack

EU Parliament Approves Delay in
1 MIN READ

EU Parliament Approves Delay in Key Sustainability Rules

Denmark Stands Firm on Sovereignty
2 MIN READ

Denmark Stands Firm on Sovereignty in Talks with US

Modi's New Law Fuels Discrimination
1 MIN READ

Modi's New Law Fuels Discrimination Concerns in India

Israel Probes Deadly Ambulance Shooting
1 MIN READ

Israel Probes Deadly Ambulance Shooting in Gaza Strip

California Wildfires Claim 30 Lives
1 MIN READ

California Wildfires Claim 30 Lives as Recovery Efforts Continue

Norovirus Hits Queen Mary 2
1 MIN READ

Norovirus Hits Queen Mary 2 Cruise, Over 240 Passengers Affected

Rubio Affirms US Commitment to
3 MIN READ

Rubio Affirms US Commitment to NATO, Calls for Increased Defense Spending

Bandidos European President Michael Rosenvold
1 MIN READ

Bandidos European President Michael Rosenvold Passes Away

Denmark Pledges Major Support Package
1 MIN READ

Denmark Pledges Major Support Package to Ukraine

Russia Not on US Tariff
2 MIN READ

Russia Not on US Tariff List Despite Broad Global Reach

Gaza Blockade Endangers Pregnant Women
1 MIN READ

Gaza Blockade Endangers Pregnant Women and Newborns, Says Save the Children

Tragedy Strikes as Boats Sink
1 MIN READ

Tragedy Strikes as Boats Sink Near Greece and Turkey, 16 Migrants Dead

Search for Missing MH370 Paused
1 MIN READ

Search for Missing MH370 Paused Until Year-End, Says Malaysia

17 Tesla Cars Set Ablaze
1 MIN READ

17 Tesla Cars Set Ablaze in Rome; Italy Boosts Security Measures

US Calls for UN Official's
1 MIN READ

US Calls for UN Official's Removal Over Alleged Anti-Semitic Views

Russian Envoy Dmitrijev Meets US
1 MIN READ

Russian Envoy Dmitrijev Meets US Officials in Washington for Talks

31 Killed in Israeli Air
1 MIN READ

31 Killed in Israeli Air Strike on Gaza School Shelter