At least 38 people have died and many have been injured among the 64 on board.
The plane from Azerbaijan Airlines crashed on Christmas morning in Aktau, Kazakhstan. Originally, the plane was headed to the other side of the Caspian Sea, Grozny in the Russian republic of Chechnya, from Baku in Azerbaijan.
Immediately after the crash, an official Russian statement claimed that the plane had been involved in a bird collision. At the time, it seemed like a plausible scenario, according to Jan Ohlsson.
Birds impossible
But then people on the scene began to examine the plane – and discovered numerous holes.
The holes in the fuselage are bent inward, which means the metal is bent inward, so the impact must have come from the outside. There isn't a woodpecker in the whole world that could peck such holes, says Jan Ohlsson.
Moreover, it would have been impossible for the birds to fly into the plane from behind and cause the damage that was in the rear section.
The holes that were formed are seemingly small, likely caused by an air defense missile, according to Jan Ohlsson.
When the warhead, the small rocket, approaches an object, it explodes before reaching the object and spreads out like a hailstorm of shrapnel and bullets that penetrate the fuselage.
Faulty control system
When the plane crashed, it didn't plummet straight down. It caught fire and the pilot lost control.
According to Ohlsson, this was likely due to the fact that the hydraulic system, which regulates the plane's steering, was also affected. When it's knocked out, it's difficult to keep the plane balanced, especially during altitude changes, and to brake during landing.
Normally, there are three independent hydraulic systems, but all of them are supplied with the same hydraulic fluid located at the back of the plane.
In pictures, you can see that a shot has been fired, so the hatch is completely open. Probably, all hydraulic fluid has been lost. That means the machine is extremely difficult to control.
Sender?
Russia has been pointed out from several quarters as a possible sender of the suspected missile fire, including by the British flight safety company Osprey Flight Solutions.
"Video footage of the wreckage and the circumstances surrounding the safety of southwestern Russia's airspace indicate that the plane was hit by some kind of air defense fire", says intelligence chief Matt Borie to Wall Street Journal.
