2024 was pretty okay in terms of salary, after a few years with significant setbacks when inflation ate up everything.
The salary increases did not cover the high price increases in society during 2022 and 2023. As a result, around ten percent of the real salary increases or 7-8 years of previous increases (salary minus inflation) disappeared – and Swedish employees were generally back at the 2015 level.
But 2024 turned it around and 2025 will be even better, if the assessments prove correct.
80 percent of the demand
The major collective bargaining round of the winter, which affects over three million employees, has begun. The unions' initial bid is 4.2 percent in increases, higher than the average over the past 10-15 years, excluding 2023-2024. It won't be that much in the end.
Historically, the mark usually lands at around 80 percent of the unions' demands, says Emma Paulsson, economist at Swedbank with a focus on salaries and the labor market.
Therefore, the final agreement would land at around 3.3 percent in salary increases, on average.
We are landing on a total salary increase rate (including wage drift) of 3.6 percent for both 2025 and 2026, says Emma Paulsson.
Even better
Inflation, according to the Swedish Central Bank's KPIF measure, which excludes interest rate changes, is estimated to land at around two percent. This gives real salary increases of 1.6 percent for two years in a row. If you calculate using the pure inflation measure, KPI, which is estimated to be below one percent in 2025:
Then it will be an even larger real salary increase, almost three percent in 2025, says Emma Paulsson.
But there is a lot to make up for from the lost inflation years. It's not until 2026 that we are back at the same level as before the period of rapid price increases, according to Paulsson.
Will it then be a tumultuous collective bargaining round?
No, Emma Paulsson does not think so. The conditions are better than before the last salary round in the winter of 2023, when employees' demands for compensation were sometimes loud.
At present, it does not seem like the demands for salary increases would pose a major threat to the negotiations breaking down. The conditions are quite clear, she says.
So much do real salaries increase:
2025 (forecast): Salary increases 3.6 percent, inflation (KPI) just under 1 percent, gives a real salary increase of almost 3 percent.
2024 (up to September): Salary increases 3.9 percent, inflation 1.6 percent, real salary increase of around 2.3 percent.
2023: salary increases 3.8 percent, inflation 8.5 percent, real salary decrease of 4.7 percent.
Source: Mediation Institute, Swedbank
