One of the next five years will likely be the warmest on record, according to a new report. It would steal the record from 2023, which was marked by deadly floods, extreme heat, and coral bleaching.
Twelve months in a row have been the respective warmest on record. In May, the global average temperature was 0.65 degrees above the 1991-2020 average and 1.52 degrees higher than the pre-industrial average, according to the EU's Copernicus climate service.
May also became the eleventh month in a row where the global average temperature was at least 1.5 degrees higher than during the pre-industrial era. A goal in the Paris Agreement, which almost all countries have signed, is to limit temperature increase to 1.5 degrees to limit warming – but that refers to a trend that will persist for several decades.
Exceeding the limit temporarily is still described by researchers as a warning bell.
Already with today's warming, effects are seen such as more extreme heat, precipitation, and drought, shrinking glaciers, and all warmer world oceans.
The likelihood of the global average temperature temporarily exceeding 1.5 degrees in at least one of the next five years is 80 percent, according to a separate report from the World Meteorological Organization (WMO). The likelihood has increased steadily, as recently as 2015 it was near zero.
WMO Vice President Ko Barrett emphasizes that the 1.5-degree goal is not permanently out of reach even if it is exceeded temporarily. However, she underscores that the world's countries are not yet on track to fulfill the Paris Agreement:
"We must quickly do more to reduce emissions, otherwise we will pay a higher and higher price in terms of billions of dollars in economic costs, millions of lives affected by more extreme weather and extensive damage to the environment and biological diversity."
2023 was the warmest year on record, partly due to the weather phenomenon El Niño, which is about to end. WMO believes that its opposite, La Niña, which usually has a cooling effect, may occur later in the year.
WMO considers it likely that at least one of the years 2024-2028 will be the warmest on record, based on average temperature.
The Paris Agreement is a global climate treaty that the world's countries agreed upon in December 2015. It entered into force in November 2016.
According to the agreement, the global warming should be kept far below 2 degrees compared to the pre-industrial level, with the ambition to limit it to 1.5 degrees. This should mainly be achieved through reduced emissions of greenhouse gases.
The agreement's parties must successively strengthen their commitments and renew or update these every five years. This is done through national climate plans (NDC).
A part of the agreement deals with increasing the ability to adapt to negative effects and handle damage and losses caused by climate changes.
A basic idea is that countries with the best conditions should take the lead and industrialized countries should provide support to developing countries. This should be done through climate financing, technology transfer, and capacity building.
