After the US and Ukraine had talks in Saudi Arabia, news came that Ukraine is ready to negotiate directly with Russia, and that they support an American proposal for a ceasefire.
As regards Russia, they are not finished with Ukraine, the long-term goal is to control Ukraine, own Ukraine, says military analyst Johan Norberg at the Total Defence Research Institute (FOI).
If there is an agreement of some kind, it will at best be a prolonged ceasefire. If it is hollow, and there is no power and political will, military resources to maintain it from the Ukrainian side and Western side, then Russia will challenge it even with military means.
"Great success for Ukraine"
After the meeting, the US has also announced that the country's pause of military support and intelligence to Ukraine will be discontinued. It was after a derailed meeting between the Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyj and his American counterpart Donald Trump that the US initially withdrew its support and information.
It is a great success for Ukraine that they have continued to talk, they are still in agreement on these things, they have a dialogue with the US – considering where they stood just two weeks ago, says Norberg.
Despite the American support being resumed, the entire situation has created uncertainty for Ukraine, which is dependent on foreign support.
The entire Trump administration's actions show: yes, now you get intelligence and support – but we can shut it down again.
Alarming trend
Norberg also thinks that there is an alarming trend in how the talks about a potential ceasefire in Ukraine are going.
I perceive it as there being carrots and sticks. It is mainly carrots for Russia and mainly sticks for Ukraine, he says.
If the trend continues, it looks quite bleak. For then I can imagine that the Kremlin perceives it as the Trump administration not caring about where the borders in Ukraine go, which is what Russia wants.
