Neither Swedish nor Finnish authorities have been able to present evidence that proves the crews of Yi Peng 3 and Eagle S deliberately chose to drop their anchors on the seabed.
Prosecutor-led investigations are underway in both countries, but already now, the American newspaper The Washington Post writes that it is likely a matter of accidents.
The newspaper refers to high-ranking security sources who claim that the Russian shadow fleet is in worse condition than previously thought, which increases the risk of accidents.
"Pure nonsense"
Pekka Toveri, former intelligence chief at the Finnish Defense Forces, does not give much credence to the information, which he previously called "pure nonsense".
If it was an accident, I assume that they would have been more cautious and stopped immediately. The crew should be aware that it can be punishable.
Hans Liwång, professor at the Defense University, notes that it only concerns one ship believed to belong to the Russian shadow fleet.
I was surprised when I read about the information. It is clear that the risk of accidents increases when the ship is in poor condition, but since it is only one ship, it is too early to draw any conclusions.
Pointing to Russia
Despite the information, everything still points to Russia, according to Jacob Kaarsbo, former chief analyst at the Danish Defense Intelligence Service.
I see this information as pure nonsense. They would not have held a NATO meeting at the top level if they did not have intelligence information pointing to sabotage. Proving sabotage is a completely different matter, he says.
If it turns out that the information about the accident is true, NATO's credibility would have sunk like a stone, emphasizes Tormod Heier, professor at the Defense University in Oslo.
We in the West would appear as hysterical and paranoid, as if we see Russian enemies behind every bush. They are aware of this from the Russian side, he says.
He highlights that the whole purpose of hybrid attacks is to make them appear as accidents.
The core is that it should be impossible to trace back to the sender, and that those who follow the rule of law should appear weaker.
