The whole of next week will be extremely windy in Germany, says Johan Sigvardsson, electricity analyst at the electricity trading company Bixia.
Just the German weather has now great significance for Swedish electricity prices. Standing still German wind turbines make the price rush, something that spreads to southern Sweden. That's what we've seen in recent days. It will also become milder and windier in southern Sweden, which reduces consumption and increases electricity production.
Less than half
The average price during Friday's 24 hours lands in Svealand and Götaland at 1.26 and 1.48 kronor per kWh, respectively. This can be compared to around 3.50 during Thursday's 24 hours in southern Sweden (electricity area 4), according to the electricity exchange Nord Pool, which sets prices one day in advance.
In Norrland, the price rises slightly, but from completely different levels, from around 10 öre to 18 öre per kilowatt-hour (kWh).
At times, the hourly prices on the electricity exchange in the two electricity areas 3 and 4 (Svealand and Götaland) were up over eight kronor during Thursday. On Friday, the peaks are down to more reasonable levels, around 3 kronor, which are still clearly higher than normal.
But for the roughly half of households that have variable electricity prices, it's the monthly average price that's essential. So far in December, the average price in electricity area 3 is around one krona/kWh, while in electricity area 4 it's around 1.25 kronor. In the two electricity areas in Norrland, the average price so far this month is between 11 and 14 öre.
Overreaction
In addition to the stock market price, consumers also pay electricity traders' surcharges, electricity tax, VAT, and electricity grid fees of over one krona/kWh, depending on the agreement and area.
Johan Sigvardsson calls the recent commotion around the soaring electricity prices an overreaction. The whole of next week, we will see more normal electricity prices again, according to his assessment of the weather.
The increasingly weather-dependent electricity system will, however, lead to continued large price variations.
