Hezbollah should no longer be allowed to exist in southern Lebanon according to the ceasefire agreement that came into force during the night against Wednesday. Only Lebanon's security forces and the regular army will be allowed to bear arms or deploy forces in southern Lebanon.
The same type of agreement was already concluded in 2006, but the Lebanese military has not had the strength to keep the powerful Shia Muslim organization away from the area south of the Litani River and down to the border with Israel.
According to Aron Lund, Middle East analyst at the Total Defence Research Institute (FOI), the Lebanese military will not be able to stop Hezbollah this time either if the organization decides to continue operating south of the Litani River.
The military can in various ways pose obstacles that Hezbollah must circumvent. But if the military is to fight Hezbollah, it's about a Lebanese civil war, and that's not on the map.
No one in Lebanon wants that, says Lund.
"Not so brilliant"
There is still some hope for a different development this time, since Hezbollah, weakened after Israel's attacks, now has other incentives.
Only the will to have a functioning ceasefire will affect the situation. Then I think everyone realizes that this won't be so brilliant, but it's what you can do, says Aron Lund.
The Lebanese military has, like other state activities in the country, been severely affected by the economic crisis that hit in 2019. Soldiers have not received their salaries and the state has not been able to finance daily operations. Instead, the USA and a number of allied countries have begun to finance parts of the Lebanese military.
Not perfect
There is still much to quarrel about and everyone is aware that the agreement is not perfect, says Aron Lund.
I think everyone realizes that this is an agreement with many flaws that will need to be patched and repaired over time. Everyone will be dissatisfied with it in the end, just like everyone has been dissatisfied with the previous agreement from 2006 and with earlier agreements.
Then the parties can feel that this won't work, now we're giving up. It's not the first time a ceasefire collapses.
The conditions for a ceasefire in Lebanon are not entirely nailed down, but the first phase is largely clear. It consists of a two-month transition period. During the 60 days, Israel's military will leave southern Lebanon. Hezbollah will move all its heavier weapons north of the Litani River.
A committee led by the USA will monitor that the parties do what they should. If Lebanon and others do not remove acute threats to Israel, there are reservations about Israel's right to take military action.
Gradually during the two-month period, hundreds of thousands of evacuated civilians will also be able to begin returning to their homes in northern Israel and southern Lebanon.
In August 2006, the UN Security Council adopted Resolution 1701, which aimed to put an end to the war between Israel and the Lebanese Shia militia Hezbollah.
Israel withdrew after a 34-day invasion of its neighboring country. It had been initiated after Hezbollah staged a rocket attack as a diversionary maneuver for an attack near the border, where several Israeli soldiers were killed and others were kidnapped.
The resolution confirmed the "blue line" between Israel and Lebanon, which has come to constitute a de facto border between the countries. North of the line, a security zone was established that stretches several miles into Lebanon up to the Litani River. It was decided that only UN peacekeeping forces (Unifil) and forces from Lebanon's regular army would be allowed there.
Israel was ordered to withdraw all forces south of the line. Furthermore, demands were made that all militia groups in Lebanon would be disarmed so that the Lebanese state would be the only armed power in the country, which has not happened.
