The crown's reinforcement paves the way for lower inflation through imports. At the same time, lower energy and commodity prices contribute to reducing price pressure in the Swedish economy – which in turn opens up for stimulus measures with interest rate cuts in the low-conjuncture, according to Swedbank.
"Moreover, changed trade flows and increased imports from China can dampen price developments", the bank writes in a fresh prognosis.
Lower inflation
Swedbank expects a so-called KPIF-inflation of 2.4 percent this year and 1.8 percent in 2026. In the KPIF measure, interest rate effects on, for example, housing loans are removed.
SEB sees the same trends, but expects the Swedish Central Bank to stay on a cut this year – in June. However, the bank's economists keep the door open for more cuts in 2026.
"The risks for inflation next year are, however, greater on the downside and further cuts are likely if inflation falls and household consumption does not take off", says Jens Magnusson.
The customs duty and its negative impact also mean that Swedbank revises down the Swedish growth to 1.5 percent this year, compared to previously 2.0 percent and 2.5 percent for 2026 (previously 3.0 percent).
"Uncertainty has increased"
The US import tariffs are now expected to land at 10-20 percent, lower than what was originally announced in connection with what President Donald Trump called "Liberation Day" on April 2. But significantly higher than the average customs rate (2.3 percent) that the US has had.
SEB has also lowered its growth prognosis.
"Uncertainty has increased for both export and consumption, and despite the growth in the end of 2024 being stronger than expected, the BNP prognosis for 2025 has been adjusted down to 1.6 percent from 2.2 percent in February. The growth for 2026 is also lowered, to 2.9 percent from 3.1 percent. Support from financial policy and a strong starting point for industry speak, however, for the picture of the Swedish economy as stronger than most comparable countries", writes SEB in its prognosis.
Swedbank's chief economist Mattias Persson compares the risks for global financial stability right now with the financial crisis – where, among other things, the view of American government bonds as a safe haven has taken a real blow.
A consequence of this is that housing prices are expected to increase marginally this year, only a few percent, to perhaps get a bit more momentum upwards again in 2026, according to Persson.
