The study, conducted by a British-led research group and reviewed by other researchers, covers the first nine months of the war between Israel and Hamas following Hamas' large-scale terrorist attack on Israel on October 7, 2023.
During the period up to and including June 2024, the Palestinian health authority registered around 38,000 dead Palestinians. The authority's figures do not distinguish between children, women, and men or Hamas fighters.
The study in The Lancet concludes that there are likely to be significantly more fatalities. The researchers estimate a range of between 55,300 and 78,500 people who may have died during the period due to injuries caused by the war, traumatic injuries.
Over 64,000
A reasonable assumption, according to the study, is around 64,000 dead – of which 59 percent are women, children, and the elderly.
Deaths due to lack of healthcare or food have not been counted, nor have people who are assumed to be buried under destroyed buildings.
The study is based on a method that has been used previously in conflicts to investigate death tolls, in English called "capture-recapture".
The researchers have studied lists from the health authority of identified dead at morgues and hospitals. They have also collected lists of deaths reported by relatives. The third source is death notices and various types of obituaries posted on social media.
In the analysis, we only kept the people who were confirmed dead by relatives or confirmed dead by morgues and hospitals, says one of the main authors of the study, epidemiologist Zeina Jamaluddine at the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, to AFP.
Questioned
The lists were reviewed to avoid double registration.
We investigated whether the lists overlapped each other and based on that, you can make an estimate of the total number of dead, says Jamaluddine.
The estimated number of dead in Gaza during the war is a disputed issue. Israel has consistently questioned the Hamas-affiliated health authority's figures, while the UN has considered them more reliable.
